A fresh survey out Friday gives Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) a 4-point edge over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the Lone Star State's Senate contest, signaling a potential shift in a state where Republicans have long held sway.
The Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll, conducted by ReconMR, shows 47 percent of likely Texas voters backing Talarico, while 43 percent support Paxton. That marks a break from the group's June survey, which had the two candidates dead even at 46 percent each.
The movement appears to be driven largely by independents, who now favor Talarico by a commanding 23-point margin, according to Lindsey Hendren, senior research analyst at ReconMR. The poll puts Talarico at 53 percent among independents, compared with Paxton's 30 percent.
That shift is an encouraging sign for Democrats looking to make inroads in Texas, where the GOP has dominated statewide elections for decades. Talarico's appeal extends to key demographic groups: Women back him 53 percent to 40 percent, while men lean toward Paxton 47 percent to 41 percent. Among voters aged 18 to 34, Talarico commands 66 percent support, versus 23 percent for Paxton, who has been endorsed by former President Trump.
Geography also paints a stark picture of Texas's political divide. Talarico holds wide leads in the Austin and Dallas–Fort Worth regions, while Paxton dominates rural parts of the state. The Houston and San Antonio areas remain closely contested, Hendren noted.
On the issues, Talarico outperforms Paxton on affordability, keeping Texans safe, and managing the state's water supply. Paxton's only edge comes on securing the southern border with Mexico, according to the poll's analysis.
Voters' perceptions of the candidates' character traits are decidedly mixed. Talarico is seen as honest, authentic, and in touch with Texas values, and not corrupt, said Clifford Young, a veteran pollster and visiting professor at Texas A&M. However, Young added, voters by a narrow margin do not view Talarico as tough.
For Paxton, the good news is that voters see him as tough. But a majority or plurality say he is not honest, authentic, or in line with Texas values—and by a 55–35 percent margin, they label him corrupt, Young said.
The survey, conducted July 27–30, polled 619 likely Texas voters via landline, cellphone, and text-to-web responses, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. The results come as primary night coverage continues to shape the national political landscape, and as other statewide races show competitive dynamics ahead of November.
