Republican strategist Karl Rove has cautioned that Florida's proposed redistricting plan, aimed at securing GOP control of the state's House delegation, carries significant political risk. During a Friday appearance on Fox News, Rove told host Brian Kilmeade that while the effort could help Republicans maintain parity, it might also backfire by forcing incumbents into less favorable districts.
Rove's warning comes as Florida lawmakers prepare to convene next week for what could be the party's final chance to redraw congressional maps before the midterm elections. The move follows a string of Democratic victories in state-level redistricting battles, including a special election in Virginia on Tuesday where voters approved a measure that boosts Democratic prospects in the Old Dominion.
“If Florida moves like it can, the Republicans will at least be even,” Rove said. “But there's a risk there, because what they're going to do is they're going to have to take Republican votes out of Republican districts and put them into Democrat districts.” He added that this could “lower the numbers for some incumbent Republicans, and they may lose a seat or two.”
The GOP's scramble after Virginia's redistricting loss has heightened the stakes in Florida. Governor Ron DeSantis has pushed for a redistricting session, arguing that the state's current maps need updating. But some Republicans have urged caution, pointing to the state constitution's anti-gerrymandering provisions and recent Democratic momentum.
DeSantis said in December that redrawing the maps “is going to have to be addressed.” However, the upcoming special session will rely solely on 2020 population data, limiting the scope of changes. The national redistricting battle began in Texas last year, with blue states like California and Virginia pushing back to give Democrats an edge. A court-ordered block on Utah's Republican-led redistricting has also opened the door for a Democratic seat gain.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has warned Florida Republicans to “F around and find out,” dubbing their plan a “dummymander” that could inadvertently benefit Democrats. Jeffries told Punchbowl News that Democrats will target eight sitting Florida GOP House seats if the redistricting effort proceeds. His comments underscore the broader Democratic pushback against GOP map-drawing.
DeSantis fired back, inviting Jeffries to campaign in Florida. “There's nothing that could be better for Republicans in Florida than to see Jeffries everywhere around this state,” DeSantis said at a press conference. “Voters will not like what they see, they will not want that type of ideology, and so the door is open, the invitation's out there.”
The internal rift within the Florida GOP over DeSantis's late-cycle redistricting gamble highlights the high stakes. With the midterms approaching, both parties are jockeying for control of the House, and Florida's 28 seats remain a critical battleground.
