As Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections, President Trump is signaling he may order military strikes on Iran shortly afterward, even as regional mediators intensify efforts to broker a ceasefire and a broader political settlement to the Middle East conflict.
Trump has repeatedly predicted the war will wind down quickly after Tuesday's vote, but he has not specified how. Iranian officials, meanwhile, insist that Washington must make the next move. "The ball is in the U.S. court, because our demands have been stated very clearly and transparently, and Iran's demands are reasonable and logical," foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters on Monday.
Diplomatic Push and Military Options
Qatar, backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, is leading the effort to bring both sides back to the negotiating table. Vice President Vance also sent a letter last week to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, in an attempt to revive talks, according to The Wall Street Journal. Yet regional analysts say Trump appears to be leaning toward escalation in the short term.
"That seems to be where Trump is headed," said Eric Brewer, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Materials Security Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). "I do think he also realizes that at the end of the day, you're going to need some type of an agreement to end the war."
Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow for American Strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said all signs point to a resumption of hostilities. Trump, he said, seems to believe there is a "short war" option that could yield a "decisive" outcome. Ruhe argued that the president's most effective leverage has been economic warfare—blockades and aggressive sanctions—rather than military force.
Trump's alternating approach of coercion and diplomacy over the past eight months has not extracted significant concessions from Tehran. The U.S. Central Command (Centcom) has prepared multiple strike options, including targeting Iranian infrastructure and military sites, should the White House authorize action, as previously reported by The Hill.
Congressional and Regional Concerns
Lawmakers were briefed in late September on the potential military plans. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, condemned the Centcom proposal as "insane," warning it would lead to "devastating escalation." "The plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests," Murphy said last week at the Middle East Institute.
Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper provided a classified briefing to the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense on Sept. 29, according to a source familiar with the session. Iran has warned that any renewed U.S. strikes would not be confined to the region, putting American-linked targets in Europe on notice. U.S. allies in the Middle East and Europe are anxious to avoid another barrage of Iranian drones and missiles.
Iran's Conditions and Oil Route
Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of the world's oil passes daily—on several conditions, including the lifting of crippling U.S. sanctions and the release of billions in frozen assets. Tehran sent a delegation to Doha this week to meet with Qatari mediators. "If Iran's legitimate demands are accepted and implemented, it would be possible to put the entire plan into operation within two days, restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and initiate the negotiation process," Baqaei said. "The realization of this depends entirely on Washington's will and decision."
Gulf states are pressing for a diplomatic solution. "From the perspective of the UAE and I would also say Gulf countries, we don't really want to see another round of confrontation in the region. We want to see a diplomatic and political resolution of this protracted crisis," said Anwar Gargash, a presidential adviser to the UAE, at the Manama dialogue on Sunday.
Trump, for his part, said Monday he is in no hurry to decide. "One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline and their people are getting very tired of it," he told Axios.
However, Iran's conditions are unlikely to be accepted by the administration, which has demanded concessions on Tehran's nuclear program as a prerequisite for any economic relief. Regional experts argue that a short-term U.S. strike campaign is unlikely to shift the negotiating dynamics. Despite the damage inflicted by U.S. and Israeli operations—dating back to Operation Midnight Hammer—Iran has not changed its position. "Hitting them hard again" is unlikely to produce a different outcome, they say. Iran believes it has emerged from the conflict with more leverage, not less, given its ability to threaten Hormuz and its substantial missile arsenal.
