A fresh Reuters/Ipsos survey released just before Tuesday's midterm elections reveals that the soaring cost of living and discontent with President Trump are driving nearly half of the electorate to the polls. The poll, conducted online among 1,765 U.S. adults, shows 48% of registered voters rank the cost of living as the most decisive factor in their vote, dwarfing concerns about democracy (26%) and immigration (13%).
The findings underscore the economic anxiety that Republicans are grappling with as they try to hold onto their narrow majorities in Congress. With inflation eroding household budgets, the political landscape has turned increasingly difficult for the GOP, and the possibility of a blue wave looms large.
Financial Pessimism Widespread
The survey paints a stark picture of American households: 49% say their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump returned to the White House, while only 13% report improvement. Another 37% say things have stayed about the same. This pessimism is especially pronounced among Hispanic voters, with 54% saying their finances have worsened under the administration, compared to just 10% who saw gains.
Fuel prices have been a major flashpoint, with the national average for a gallon of gas hitting $4.15 on Tuesday morning, according to AAA—more than a dollar higher than a year ago. The spike is tied to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, now in its ninth month, which has added to broader affordability woes.
Iran Conflict a Political Liability
The war with Iran has become a significant drag on Trump's approval. Only 25% of voters believe the military operations have been worth their costs, while 55% say they have not. The financial toll is steep: the conflict has cost $47 billion so far, up $3 billion from September, with the largest share going to replenishing munitions.
As voters head to the polls, the Senate races that could flip are drawing intense scrutiny, and the election night results will be closely watched for signs of a Democratic surge. Meanwhile, the administration's handling of the Iran conflict—and its post-midterm strike options—remains a wildcard.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted ahead of Election Day, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
