A final pre-election survey suggests Democrats are entering Election Day with a narrower but still notable advantage in the race for Congress. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Monday, found 46% of registered voters backing Democratic candidates in their House districts, compared with 38% who support Republicans. That 8-point gap is down from an 11-point Democratic lead recorded in the same poll a week ago.
The tightening margin highlights the political headwinds Republicans are fighting as they seek to hold their House majority. According to Decision Desk HQ's polling averages, Democrats currently hold an 8.6-point edge on the generic ballot — a figure that has fluctuated in recent weeks but remains comfortably in Democratic territory.
President Trump's approval rating remains stuck in negative territory. The survey shows just 32% of Americans approve of his job performance, unchanged from last week and just one point above the record low of 31% recorded in October. That persistent unpopularity appears to be shaping the electorate's mood, with 50% of independents saying their vote for Congress is a vote against the administration. Only 13% say they are voting in support of the president, while 33% say he will not influence their choice.
The president's weak numbers come amid growing public frustration over the cost of living, driven in part by rising fuel prices as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its ninth month ahead of Election Day. The national average price for a gallon of gas stood at $4.15 Tuesday morning, according to AAA, up more than a dollar from a year ago. Affordability concerns and dissatisfaction with the president's agenda are top of mind for many voters casting ballots.
These dynamics have fueled Democratic optimism about their chances of flipping the House and possibly the Senate. Recent analyses, including a Harvard model giving Democrats a 96% chance of winning the House and 78% for the Senate, reflect that bullishness. However, the narrowing generic ballot margin serves as a reminder that the race is not static.
With control of the Senate also in play, the outcome could hinge on a handful of tight races. Senate control hangs in the balance as Democrats eye a possible eight-seat flip, though some races have tightened in recent days. The latest polling averages suggest Democrats are favored to retake the chamber, but the margins are slim enough that a late surge by Republicans cannot be ruled out.
Voting mechanics are also drawing attention. In Nevada, Washoe County mailing errors have caused some ballot envelopes to be misprinted with the word "FALSE," potentially confusing thousands of voters. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court rejected a Trump campaign effort to isolate 20,000 California ballots, a decision that could affect the count in that state.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online among 1,765 U.S. adults ahead of Election Day and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. As the final votes are cast, the generic ballot numbers suggest a close but Democratic-leaning outcome, with the president's unpopularity and economic anxiety likely to be decisive factors.
