Russian President Vladimir Putin has never explicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons to end the war in Ukraine, but he has taken deliberate steps to suggest Moscow might. These include updating Russia's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for use, moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and conducting large-scale drills amid Ukrainian drone strikes. While Putin remains ambiguous, his allies, notably former President Dmitry Medvedev, have been more explicit.
Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, has repeatedly warned of nuclear escalation. In July 2023, he said that if Ukraine's counteroffensive succeeded, Russia would be forced to use nuclear weapons. Earlier this year, as Russian forces struggled and Ukrainian strikes hit Moscow, Medvedev declared that "our patience is not limitless" and that the nuclear option remained a "last resort."
International pressure has been applied directly to Putin. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping both advised against nuclear use in 2022, with Xi repeating the warning in 2023. Polish officials confirmed in 2025 that Modi's intervention dissuaded Putin from using nuclear weapons. Moscow has not denied these reports, suggesting they carry weight.
Yet, according to Finnish and French military and civilian leaders, Putin may be increasingly tempted as the war drags into its fifth year. They worry about how the US might respond—whether Washington would stand aside or escalate with its own nuclear strike, risking a broader conflict.
However, there are strong reasons to believe Putin would hesitate to order a nuclear strike. He fears a US retaliatory strike that would likely end his regime. Additionally, France's independent nuclear deterrent, now extended to Finland, presents a second threat. French officials have made clear they would consider striking Moscow if Russia used nuclear weapons.
With two independent nuclear powers capable of retaliation, Putin likely will not risk crossing that line. Instead, Russia will continue its relentless missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Kyiv's need for additional defensive systems is urgent.
Western Europe has provided support, but the US must do more. Even with its own munitions stockpiles low, Washington should prioritize sending additional defensive capabilities to Ukraine. The stakes are high: Ukraine's freedom and independence depend on continued support.
Putin's nuclear threats are a bluff, but the conventional threat is real. The US must not waver in its commitment to countering Russian aggression and ensuring Ukraine can defend itself.
