With 85 days until the midterm elections, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of making significant Senate gains. While the overall map still leans Republican, President Trump's sinking approval ratings, public frustration over the war in Iran, and rising prices have put several GOP-held seats in play.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber, assuming they hold all their current blue-state seats. Recent shakeups have shifted the landscape, including in Maine, where Democrats are eager to unseat longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins, and in Michigan, where a progressive primary victory by Abdul El-Sayed in the race for retiring Senator Gary Peters's seat has unsettled the party establishment.
Even picking up a handful of these seats could have outsized consequences in the next Congress, as demonstrated last week when Attorney General Todd Blanche was confirmed by a single-vote margin. Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, noted that Democratic primary turnout has outpaced Republican turnout this spring and summer, signaling a potential enthusiasm gap heading into the general election.
Republicans are working to shield their candidates from Trump's political drag and to ensure GOP voters show up in November. Here are eight Republican-held seats where Democrats have a credible path to victory.
North Carolina
The race to succeed retiring Senator Thom Tillis is one of the most competitive this cycle. Republican nominee Michael Whatley, a former RNC chair, faces popular former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat. Though North Carolina has trended Republican in presidential races since 2000—with exceptions like Obama's first term—Cooper won the governorship in 2016 and 2020 even with Trump on the ballot.
Recent polls, including a late July Fox News survey, show Cooper leading by 9 points. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as "likely Democratic," a reflection of Trump's roughly 40% approval in the state and Cooper's name recognition. Taylor noted that national Republican spending is just beginning to arrive, which could tighten the race as Election Day nears.
"Rarely are races in North Carolina a blowout, especially at the federal level," Taylor said. "But this is far and away Democrats' best pickup opportunity. It helps that it's an open seat, and they have a top tier recruit in the former governor."
Republicans are hammering Cooper on his public safety record, with Senate Leadership Fund ads highlighting prisoner releases during the COVID-19 pandemic that led to violent crimes. Democrats, meanwhile, are linking Whatley to a party fundraiser convicted of sex crimes and tying him to unpopular Trump policies.
Maine
The Maine contest has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who had weathered a series of scandals, dropped out in early July after being accused of sexual assault, which he denied. Democrats replaced him with Troy Jackson, a logger and former state Senate president who shares Platner's progressive views but brings more political experience.
"Jackson takes away the obvious personal baggage that Platner had," Taylor said. "He's less well-known, he doesn't have as long of a time to run a campaign, which could be a blessing and a curse." Maine has long been a Democratic target, as the state leans blue but has repeatedly re-elected Collins. She is emphasizing her role as Appropriations Committee chair, bringing federal dollars to Maine, and her independent streak, having often broken with Trump.
Democrats are highlighting Collins's pivotal 2018 vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which enabled the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while noting Jackson's evolution from anti-abortion to pro-choice. Republicans are trying to tie Jackson to Platner, given their shared support for abolishing ICE and their earlier joint campaigning. Recent polls, including a University of New Hampshire survey, show Jackson ahead by 3 points, though Collins has historically defied polling expectations.
"She's been a survivor, but her numbers are the worst they've ever been in her career," Taylor said.
Ohio
Ohio has shifted rightward in recent years, but Democrats see a prime opportunity in former Senator Sherrod Brown's comeback bid against GOP Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to fill Vice President Vance's seat. A recent Democratic-aligned poll shows Brown up 4 points, while a June New York Times/Siena survey had a narrower margin.
The Buckeye State race could become a key test of whether Trump's influence can overcome Brown's populist appeal. Democrats are also eyeing gains in other states, as seen in primaries that set the stage for November, and the party's base is energized by Trump's vaccine order reigniting a political fight. Meanwhile, Trump's floated emergency powers over voting have added another layer of controversy.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, Democrats are also watching races like Wisconsin's governor race, which has shifted toward Democrats, and the broader implications of centrist Democrats' anti-left crusade backfiring. With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, every one of these eight seats could prove decisive.
