Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, a prominent supporter of President Trump, declared Monday that Democrats are poised to seize control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. Speaking on CNBC's "The Exchange," Griffin described the shift as "almost a certainty," pointing to the historical pattern of midterm electorates swinging against the incumbent president's party.
"It's the nature of almost every midterm election cycle—House seats swing in favor of the opposing party," Griffin told host Sara Eisen. His prediction aligns with a growing consensus among political analysts, as the Midterm Battle Tightens: Democrats See House Opening, Senate Uphill.
Griffin tempered his forecast by noting that the Senate will be the real battleground. "Republicans will almost certainly keep the Senate, but that will be the political battleground in this election cycle," he added. Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 edge in the upper chamber, with Democrats needing to flip four GOP-held seats to secure a 50-50 tie—where Vice President Vance would break the tie.
The math in the House is razor-thin. Republicans hold a 217-212 majority, with one independent caucusing with the GOP and five vacancies—three previously held by Democrats and two by Republicans. Historical trends are unforgiving: in four of the last five midterms, the party controlling the White House lost ground in the House. The sole exception was 2014, when Republicans expanded their majority during Barack Obama's second term.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently lists 16 House races as "Toss Ups," with 13 of those districts held by Republicans. Both parties have also been waging a redistricting war, sparked last summer when Texas Republicans—at Trump's urging—redrew the state's congressional map. This has intensified the fight for swing seats, as Voter Enthusiasm Gap Widens as Democrats Eye Midterm Gains.
In the Senate, the Cook Political Report rates three seats as toss-ups: Republican-held seats in Maine (Sen. Susan Collins) and Ohio (Sen. Jon Husted), and a Democratic-held seat in Michigan (retiring Sen. Gary Peters). One GOP-held open seat in North Carolina—where retiring Sen. Thom Tillis is being succeeded by former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and former RNC Chair Michael Whatley—leans Democratic.
Griffin's prediction underscores the uphill battle Republicans face in defending their House majority. With six months to go, the political landscape remains fluid, but the billionaire's assessment adds weight to the Democratic narrative that they are well-positioned for a November win. As the Democrats Clash Over Withheld 2024 Election Autopsy as Frustration Mounts, the party is eager to capitalize on any advantage.
The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on Trump's policies and the GOP's slim majorities. Griffin's comments, coming from a major Republican donor, signal that even the party's financial backers see the House as a likely loss—while the Senate remains the true prize.
