Vice President JD Vance sat on a talk show last week as the host presented him with a pickle-flavored birthday cake, explaining that a fudge cake would have been “too gay.” It was a bizarre, cringe-inducing moment, but it also captures the state of Vance’s quest for the Republican nomination in 2028: He keeps getting served unappetizing fare, and he keeps eating it.
Right now, the menu includes negotiating a peace deal with Iran that is guaranteed to be unpopular. Vance announced Iran will reopen nuclear sites to IAEA inspectors, but hawks will say it gives too much to Tehran, while doves will argue the U.S. got less than it could have if the war had never started. If the deal collapses, he pleases no one.
But Vance is not squeamish. He subjected himself to the hosts of “The View” with the same enthusiasm he brought to right-wing podcasts. You may like or dislike him, but you cannot accuse him of being afraid to grab a fork and dig in.
That willingness comes with risks. Trump's Iran deal quip puts Vance on the hook for unpopular war, and his second biography aims to address the questions voters have about a man who has already had two radically different identities in a brief public life. His effort to have his cake and eat it too regarding Iran—reportedly anguished behind closed doors but publicly supportive of the administration—speaks to a level of calculation that makes people uncomfortable. Will the real JD Vance please stand up?
Then there are the enemies he makes along the way. Pro-Israel Republicans are furious about his tough talk for Jerusalem being just theater. One assumes that before Rosh Hashanah, Vance will be back in their good graces, but it won’t be easy.
This helps explain the recent surge in support for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has caught up to Vance in some 2028 polls. Rubio, far more dignified, benefits from the perception that he is a competent person in an incompetent administration. But what would Rubio do if he found himself on the sour end of a pickle cake? Running for president is awful and dehumanizing.
Until we know the answers—and what further mischief President Trump will inflict on his would-be successors—Vance remains the heavy favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination, not quite prohibitive but getting there.
Democrats Face a Wide-Open Field
On the Democratic side, things look wide-open. With no incumbent or sitting vice president, there’s no baggage to haul. But without those stabilizing forces, Democrats are getting ready for a big donnybrook.
The closest thing to a true front-runner is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has the fame, money, and office to command respect from the party establishment. But his numbers have waned since he was Trump’s chief antagonist last year. Democrats looking for a safe pick are testing other options, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and, if he pulls off his reelection, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff.
But what about the Democrats who are sick of playing it safe? Those who believe their party has gone 1 for 3 in post-Obama presidential elections precisely because they chose safe, establishment-backed candidates? These are the socialistic voters who have backed Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but also those who want the mad-as-hell kind of pitchfork populism of Maine Senate nominee Graham Platner. If Barack Obama was a progressive who sounded moderate, many Democrats might now settle for a moderate who sounded outraged.
That brings us to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Tuesday’s New York primaries. Ocasio-Cortez has been taking heat from socialist true believers for her selective endorsements this cycle. She backed neither the scandal-soaked Platner nor the hugely divisive Abdul El-Sayed for Senate in Michigan, even as she campaigns across the country with their benefactor, Sanders.
In New York, her selective socialism has caught the left’s attention. Ocasio-Cortez, who rose by knocking off a Democratic incumbent in a primary, has been AWOL on hometown candidates trying to do the same thing. Is she selling out to please the establishment? A closer look reveals her collaboration with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, to whom she once played angel investor. In races where it would be politically damaging to Mamdani to endorse socialists against incumbents, Ocasio-Cortez is there. But in races where it would raise hackles for her to back a challenger, the mayor is front and center.
The rap on Ocasio-Cortez’s chances for 2028 is that she will end up where Sanders and Warren did: passed over by voters who liked the eat-the-rich vibes but feared a general election wipeout. But what we’re seeing today in New York is a 2028 candidate willing to make calculated, Vancian choices to get ahead. Given her status as the first true millennial heartthrob of the far left, those voters may give her lots of leeway.
