Ukraine is turning the tide on the battlefield, reclaiming territory for the first time in years as its drone dominance outflanks Russian forces. Defense analysts say the conflict has entered a new phase, with Kyiv poised to break a stalemate that has held since late 2023.
Kyiv now calls the next six months “crucial” for seizing the initiative. Moscow has responded with threats of escalation and stepped-up aerial strikes. George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War notes that “for the very first time since 2023, the Ukrainians have actually managed to take back more terrain than the Russians did.”
ISW reports that Ukrainian gains signal a shift in momentum, thanks to Kremlin forces stagnating and Kyiv’s innovative use of drones. Drones have extended the “kill zone” more than 10 miles in both directions, says Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute. “The Russians simply cannot accumulate the kind of mass and armor needed for a breakthrough,” Lieven told The Hill.
Just months ago, many analysts predicted Russia would capture the Donbas. Instead, Moscow remains far from that goal. Ukraine has transitioned from positional warfare to taking more ground than Russia since April. “That’s because the Ukrainians have gotten more effective at denying the Russians their advances,” Barros adds.
The shift began in late 2025, when Ukraine struck Russian radars, electronic warfare stations, and air defenses, blinding Moscow’s forces. Peter Rough of the Hudson Institute, just back from Ukraine, notes that drone warfare has transformed combat. One medic told him he hadn’t treated a gunshot wound in six months. “There are snipers who have been retrained, sometimes begrudgingly, for drone systems,” Rough says.
Ukraine has also launched long-range strikes deeper into Russia, hitting oil facilities and military targets. Early Wednesday, it struck an air base in Voronezh, a repair plant in Taganrog, and a refinery in Tuapse. President Zelensky says Ukraine has retaken nearly 230 square miles since the start of the year. Moscow still controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory.
Anne Keast-Butler of UK intelligence GCHQ declared Russia is “going backwards on the battlefield,” with nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers killed since February 2022. Moscow has responded by escalating attacks on Ukraine and threatening neighboring European countries.
The Russian Foreign Ministry threatened fresh “systematic strikes” on Ukrainian decision-making centers. An overnight drone attack strayed into Romania, hitting an apartment building and injuring two. As NATO vowed to protect every inch of its territory, Dmitry Medvedev warned Europe’s “peaceful sleep is over.” Related coverage includes a Russian drone strike on a Romanian apartment building that injured two and Medvedev’s warning that Europe’s peaceful sleep is over.
Russia launched one of its heaviest strikes on Kyiv since the war began, with 90 missiles and over 600 drones, killing four and injuring 87. Zelensky has appealed to President Trump and Congress for more Patriot air defense munitions, as Russia prepares to intensify its campaign of terror.
