President Trump is reportedly considering a full-scale military campaign against Iran as his administration seeks to break a deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz and pressure Tehran into nuclear talks. The U.S. military has already resumed strikes over the past week, primarily targeting air defense systems, radar installations, and missile and drone launch sites near the strategic waterway.
According to Axios, Trump convened top advisers in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss “devastating strikes on strategic targets in Iran.” The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that options include sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands and bombing the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility. The U.S. waged nearly 40 days of full-on war with Iran earlier this year before a ceasefire in early April. Ditching diplomacy now would expose Trump to serious peril at home and abroad.
1. Depleting Stockpiles
The first phase of the conflict consumed a massive amount of munitions. Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper told the Senate in May that the military fired over 13,000 strike munitions before the ceasefire. An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found the U.S. used nearly half its Patriot missile stockpile, more than half of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, and over 45 percent of its Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs).
The Pentagon is now lobbying Congress for a supplemental funding package to replenish these supplies, alongside a record $1.5 trillion budget request for fiscal 2027. House leadership released a third budget reconciliation bill on Wednesday that would allocate $60 billion to defense, but its path is uncertain. A return to all-out war would only deepen concerns that the U.S. is undermining its readiness for other threats, particularly a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Military analysts estimate it could take four years or more to restock weapons inventories—a timeline that renewed fighting would stretch further.
2. Triggering a Recession
Trump acknowledged earlier this month that his motivation for signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was to avert a global recession. “We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said in France on June 17. “There’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.” He warned of “bedlam” if oil supplies dried up.
Sina Toossi, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told The Hill that U.S. strategic petroleum reserves remain at historically low levels. “As a result, there is less cushion to absorb a prolonged supply disruption than in the previous round of fighting, increasing the risks of sharper energy price spikes, higher inflation and broader economic disruption,” she said. Gas prices jumped again this week as Trump shifted back to combat mode, despite a recent cooling in inflation. The OECD described the conflict as the “dominant force shaping the global economic outlook,” warning that global growth could slow from 2.1 percent in 2026 to 1.8 percent in 2027—levels not seen since the pandemic and the Great Recession.
3. Roiling the Midterms
Trump’s approval rating, especially on the economy, has closely tracked his moves on Iran. That has Republicans worried about the midterm fallout. “The war started off unpopular, and that hasn’t really changed,” Alex Rossell Hayes, lead data scientist for YouGov, told The Hill last week. A Quinnipiac University poll taken after the MOU was signed found that 60 percent of voters believe the war was not “worth it,” while a Reuters survey released this week showed 79 percent expect the U.S. military to remain engaged for “an extended period of time,” up from 65 percent in March.
As gas prices dropped recently, Democrats saw a slight narrowing in their generic ballot lead. That advantage could shift again depending on Trump’s next moves. “It’s all very dependent on how it would affect the economy,” Hayes said, noting that few voters are driven by foreign policy but many are strongly influenced by economic conditions. Trump reimposed the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports this week after Iran said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again, and traffic through the waterway has dropped to lows last seen before the MOU.
4. Diplomatic and Strategic Fallout
Beyond immediate military and economic risks, a return to all-out war would likely torpedo any remaining diplomatic channels. Trump has already ruled out talks with Iran as strikes escalate, and European allies have grown increasingly wary of U.S. escalation. The conflict also complicates efforts to maintain pressure on other adversaries; Democrats are already hammering Trump’s economic record on the campaign trail. With the midterms approaching, every decision in the Strait carries political weight.
Many Republicans in Congress are urging caution, but Trump appears determined to press forward. The next few weeks will test whether the administration can manage these risks—or whether a return to war will prove as costly as its first round.
