With just one month until Election Day, President Trump's political machine is unleashing a flood of cash into the most competitive Senate and House races, aiming to secure GOP control of Congress. The president's main super PAC, MAGA Inc., along with affiliated groups No Going Back PAC and Safety & Affordability PAC, have reported some of their largest expenditures of the cycle, according to recent campaign finance filings.
MAGA Inc., which reported $415 million on hand as of late August, has pledged to spend between $400 million and $500 million on the midterms. The bulk of its firepower is currently directed at the Texas Senate race, where Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) faces state Rep. James Talarico (D). MAGA Inc. has already poured $25 million into that contest, which polling averages from Decision Desk HQ show Talarico narrowly leading by just over two points.
The super PAC also spent more than $825,000 in late August to back Sen. Darline Graham (R) in the South Carolina GOP primary against Rep. Ralph Norman (R), a race Graham ultimately won, setting up a general election matchup with Democrat Annie Andrews.
Meanwhile, No Going Back PAC is spreading its resources across a broader map. It has injected nearly $23 million into the Ohio Senate race between Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and $17.5 million into Michigan's contest between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Another $10 million is boosting former RNC Chair Michael Whatley in North Carolina, while $7.4 million targets New Hampshire's race and $5 million backs Rep. Mike Collins (R) in Georgia. The group has also spent over $5 million in Alaska.
According to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, nearly $43 million of that money has gone toward aired ads in six key Senate races, with additional millions reserved for future buys in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Alaska, and Georgia. The group has also invested heavily in House battlegrounds, including more than $7 million in Florida's 25th District, $6.6 million in New York's 3rd District, and $4 million in Michigan's 4th District.
Notably, some spending is flowing into solidly Republican districts, a sign of the party's defensive posture amid a challenging environment. For example, No Going Back PAC has put about $285,000 into Texas's 9th District, which was redrawn to favor the GOP, and $235,000 into Texas's 23rd District, both rated as likely Republican holds.
One Republican operative involved in the midterms cautioned that if the party underperforms in November, it will likely be due to persistent voter frustration over the cost of living, not a shortage of campaign cash. "We've communicated to partners in the ecosystem what we were going to do," a source familiar with Trump's political spending said, adding that the super PACs are coordinating with groups like Congressional Leadership Fund and Senate Leadership Fund to "look for gaps or where we need to strategically make a dent."
Republicans overall hold a clear spending advantage this cycle, with AdImpact reporting that it's the first time since at least 2020 that the GOP has outspent Democrats in Senate races at this point, by nearly $190 million. Still, Democratic candidates in several competitive races have managed to outraise their GOP counterparts, keeping the battle for Congress tight. As the president's midterm push hits red states, the question remains whether this financial surge will translate into victories.
