A fresh survey from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Democrat James Talarico edging out Republican Ken Paxton by two points in the race for Texas's open Senate seat. Talarico pulls 47 percent support among likely voters, while Paxton trails at 45 percent—a margin that falls within the poll's 2.83-point error window. Six percent remain undecided, and 2 percent back another candidate.
The poll, conducted July 27-30 among 1,200 likely general-election voters, also underscores Paxton's deep unpopularity. Only 39 percent view him favorably, while 57 percent hold an unfavorable opinion. Talarico's numbers are more balanced: 46 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable. Notably, very few voters—just 7 percent for Talarico and 4 percent for Paxton—say they lack enough information to judge either candidate, signaling that both are well-defined in the electorate's mind.
This latest survey follows a Fox News poll released days earlier that showed Talarico ahead by three points, adding to a string of encouraging data for Democrats who see a rare opportunity to flip a Senate seat in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in decades. Decision Desk HQ rates the race a toss-up, though its forecast model gives Paxton a slight edge in November.
Paxton's path to the nomination was anything but smooth. He defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a contentious primary runoff earlier this year, boosted by an endorsement from former President Trump, who has carried Texas comfortably in all three of his presidential runs. But Paxton enters the general election burdened by a 2023 impeachment in the state House over corruption and bribery allegations, from which he was acquitted in the state Senate. His recent abrupt exit from a press conference after dodging questions about his finances and voting record has done little to quiet those concerns.
Republicans are betting that Trump's enduring popularity with the state's conservative base will be enough to carry Paxton across the finish line. The poll, however, shows Trump's own standing in Texas is shaky: 55 percent of likely voters view him unfavorably, versus 44 percent who see him positively. That finding could complicate Paxton's strategy of tying himself closely to the former president.
Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that Paxton's legal and ethical baggage—combined with Talarico's relative freshness as a candidate—can tip the scales. Talarico, a state representative, has campaigned on issues like artificial intelligence oversight amid Texas's data-center boom, seeking to broaden his appeal beyond the party's base.
The race has also drawn national attention as part of a broader battle for control of the Senate. With Republicans defending a narrow majority, every seat matters. The outcome in Texas could hinge on turnout in the state's fast-growing suburban areas, where Trump's unpopularity may weigh heavily on down-ballot Republicans.
Political analysts note that while Paxton's scandals are a clear liability, Texas remains a conservative state, and Trump's base is highly motivated. Still, the two-point deficit in this poll—and the fact that Paxton's favorability is underwater by 18 points—suggests the race is far from settled. As the general election approaches, both campaigns are expected to pour resources into advertising and ground operations, with an eye on the state's rapidly diversifying electorate.
The survey's release comes amid broader Republican anxieties about the political climate. Some strategists worry that economic issues, including the fallout from Trump's tariff policies, could dampen GOP turnout. For now, though, the Texas Senate race remains a statistical dead heat, with both candidates having clear paths to victory in November.
