The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote Thursday on a cryptocurrency regulation bill that has become a high-stakes test for bipartisan cooperation in an election year. The legislation, officially titled the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, aims to provide federal regulators with clear guidelines for overseeing crypto companies—a priority long sought by the industry and its allies in Washington.

President Trump and Republican lawmakers are pushing for a major policy win before the midterms, and a handful of moderate Democrats could cross party lines to support the measure. However, Democratic concerns over Trump's personal financial ties to the crypto sector, along with unresolved provisions on stablecoins and government ethics, have left the bill's fate uncertain.

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“We doubt these changes will be enough to secure Democratic votes for the bill in the Banking Committee, but talks will continue ahead of Thursday’s markup,” wrote Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, in a note Tuesday. “If the bill passes the committee on a party-line vote, then the bill’s prospects will be weak. If one or two Democrats cross the aisle and support the bill, then it would have a fighting chance of passing this year.”

Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) released an updated 309-page draft early Tuesday, incorporating several key changes. Notably, the revised bill includes a reworked stablecoin provision that had stalled negotiations for months, tweaks to software developer protections that law enforcement groups had opposed, and a new housing-related measure aimed at securing support from Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.).

Yet the draft conspicuously omits language restricting how government officials can invest in or participate in the crypto industry—a key demand from Senate Democrats. This absence has fueled skepticism that the bill can attract the bipartisan backing needed to survive a floor vote.

The push for crypto regulation comes as the administration juggles multiple foreign policy challenges, including Trump's Iran strategy and delicate talks with Beijing. Meanwhile, GOP senators have urged the president to focus on Iran rather than Cuba, illustrating the competing priorities on Capitol Hill.

If the bill clears the committee on a party-line vote, its chances on the Senate floor would be slim. But if at least one or two Democrats break ranks, supporters believe it could become law this year. The outcome of Thursday's markup will signal whether the crypto industry's long-sought regulatory clarity remains within reach or slips further away.