A fresh survey from Politico and PF Global reveals a notable fracture in President Trump's base: more than a quarter of his 2024 supporters now think Republican candidates would improve their midterm prospects by publicly separating from him.
The poll, conducted in early October among 2,001 respondents, found that 26% of those who voted for Trump in the last presidential election believe their local GOP nominee would have a better chance of winning if they broke with the former president. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, with larger margins for subgroups.
On specific policy fronts, the desire for distance is even more pronounced. A majority of Trump voters—57%—said Republicans should part ways with him over the handling of the Iran war. That figure climbs to 61% on economic matters and reaches 67% on immigration and border security.
With less than a month until Election Day, Republicans are scrambling to defend seats that were once considered safe, including Senate races in Kansas and Iowa. Trump's lagging approval numbers and widespread dissatisfaction with the economy have handed Democrats unexpected openings in these typically conservative states.
Yet the survey also underscores that Democrats have not fully capitalized on the GOP's troubles. Their favorability rating stands at just 43.8%, according to Decision Desk HQ data.
When asked who deserves credit if Republicans hold their congressional majorities, only 22% credited Trump's actions as president. A larger share—29%—said it would be due to weak Democratic campaigning, while 23% attributed a potential win to strong GOP campaigns independent of Trump. Another 26% were unsure.
The economic mood is grim: 44% of respondents said their personal financial situation has worsened since Trump took office last year, compared with 21% who reported improvement. A striking 59% said groceries, gas, and other essentials have become less affordable, including 40% of Trump's own 2024 voters.
The findings arrive as Trump continues to dominate GOP politics, but they signal growing unease among his own supporters about the party's reliance on him. His recent public appearances have done little to quell concerns about his influence on competitive races.
Some Republicans worry that Trump's divisive rhetoric on immigration could alienate swing voters, while others point to his controversial foreign policy statements as a liability. The poll suggests that a meaningful slice of his base now agrees.
As the midterms approach, the question is whether GOP candidates will heed this call for distance or double down on loyalty to the former president. The survey's findings could reshape campaign strategies in the final stretch.
