Voters heading to the polls Tuesday are facing the highest gas prices ever recorded for an Election Day, with the national average reaching $4.11 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. That surpasses the previous record of $3.75 set in 2022, based on U.S. government data (not adjusted for inflation).
The spike is a direct consequence of the ongoing conflict with Iran, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Although oil flows have improved since the early days of the war, prices remain elevated, and the pain at the pump has become a central issue in the midterm campaign.
President Trump has repeatedly downplayed the impact of higher fuel costs, calling them a “very small price to pay” in the early days of the war and later saying he didn't “give a damn” because the U.S. is profiting from oil exports. But voters are clearly frustrated, and the economy is one of Trump's weakest areas.
According to a tracker by analyst Nate Silver, Trump's approval rating on inflation stands at just 24%, with nearly 70% disapproving. Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, shows his overall approval at a net negative 20 points.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that nearly half of voters rank cost of living as the most important issue in their vote, with similar shares of Republicans, Democrats, and independents citing it. That's a red flag for the GOP on the final day of Election Day voting.
Rising prices are particularly acute in battleground states, where the average cost of a gallon is above the national figure. The issue could tip close races, especially in the Colorado Senate race, where incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper faces a challenge from Republican Jon Baisley.
Despite the grim numbers, Trump has made energy independence a centerpiece of his closing argument, touting increased U.S. oil production and claiming that higher prices are a temporary side effect of the war. But analysts note that oil prices have slid in recent days, offering little relief at the pump.
As the generic ballot narrows, the economy remains a drag on Republican hopes. Voters are also concerned about the potential for post-election legal challenges, which could further unsettle markets and confidence.
With polls closing across the country, the price at the pump may be the deciding factor for many. Whether the GOP can overcome the economic headwind remains to be seen.
