As voters head to the polls today, Republicans are confronting the possibility of a devastating midterm defeat. President Trump's closing argument to the nation has centered on an unexpected topic: the algae cleanup at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. While the restoration of the iconic landmark and the deployment of the National Guard to combat crime in Washington, D.C., may be welcome developments for the capital, they are hardly the pressing concerns of voters in battleground states like Michigan, Texas, or Alaska.
Trump is not running for mayor of Washington. He is the leader of a party fighting to retain its majorities in Congress, and his closing message appears disconnected from the kitchen-table issues that will decide the election. Instead of addressing the war in Iran, rising diesel prices, or the administration's deregulation efforts, the president has spent precious final days touting local D.C. projects. That misstep could prove costly.
Democrats, meanwhile, are poised to seize on any Republican stumble. If they win control of the House and Senate, they have promised immediate investigations into Trump family business dealings, Republican officials, and top GOP donors like Elon Musk. The prospect of divided government and endless subpoenas is exactly what the president should be warning voters about, but his message has been muddled.
Republicans should be emphasizing their achievements: streamlining government, reducing the federal workforce, and cracking down on illegal immigration. They should be painting Democrats as a party bent on expanding the federal government, raising taxes, and stifling wealth creation and housing construction. Instead, the president's focus on the Reflecting Pool has left many in his party frustrated.
"Fixing the Reflecting Pool is not a major concern of voters in Michigan or Texas or Alaska," said one Republican strategist. "And that's a problem."
The stakes are enormous. Polls currently predict a total GOP wipeout, with Republicans losing the House and possibly the Senate, where they once held a structural advantage. Prediction markets also show the president's party underperforming, a worrying sign for Republicans. The election may come down to a handful of states: Maine, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, and possibly Iowa. If Democrats fail to defend their Michigan seat, they would need a near-perfect night elsewhere. But if Republicans lose Texas, a bloodbath is likely to ensue.
With so much on the line, the president still has much to accomplish in his second term. But first, he must convince voters that a Republican Congress is the only way to achieve it. As the nation waits for results, one thing is clear: the battle for Congress is far from over, and the president's closing message may not have been the one Republicans needed.
