The Cook Political Report, a leading election handicapper, has moved 18 House races in favor of Democrats, signaling a continued challenging environment for Republicans as the Iran war and economic troubles weigh on voters.
The shift affects nine Republican incumbents: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Zach Nunn (Iowa), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Rob Wittman (Va.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), French Hill (Ark.), and Victoria Spartz (Ind.). Additionally, five Democratic incumbents—Susie Lee (Nev.), Tom Suozzi (N.Y.), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Marie Glusenkamp Perez (Wash.), and Don Davis (N.C.)—saw their races move further into their party's column.
Four open seats in Nebraska's 2nd, Iowa's 2nd, Kentucky's 6th, and Maine's 2nd districts also tilted toward Democrats. Cook's House editor, Erin Covey, noted in an analysis that the most likely outcome now is a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats, with Democrats needing to win only 20% of the Toss Ups to secure a majority if all favorable districts break their way.
Based on Cook's ratings, Democrats would hold between 224 and 234 seats. Many of the shifted districts were carried by President Trump in his previous bids, but growing dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and foreign policy has opened opportunities for Democrats in red-leaning areas.
In Kentucky's 6th, Covey pointed out that while Trump carried the district by 15 points and former Rep. Andy Barr won reelection by 27, polling shows Democratic prosecutor Zach Dembo and Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado running neck-and-neck. "On paper, this open seat should be difficult for a Democrat to win," Covey said.
The economic backdrop remains grim for the GOP. Trump's economic approval rating has sunk to historic lows amid the unpopular war in Iran, which has pushed average gas prices to $4.37 a gallon on Friday, a 40% jump from a year ago, according to AAA. Diesel prices, vital for public transport and trucking, averaged $6.28 a gallon, hitting rural communities especially hard.
Tariffs on key trading partners, particularly Canada, have also hurt states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine. U.S. trade with Canada totaled an estimated $872.3 billion in 2025, according to the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, and the new duties are disrupting supply chains and raising costs.
The ratings shift aligns with broader trends as Democrats are poised to flip the House amid the GOP's Trump drag. Meanwhile, Democrats are also eyeing an expanded Senate map, and efforts to curb presidential tariff powers are gaining traction in Congress.
With the midterms approaching, the Cook Report's moves underscore how the political landscape is shifting under the weight of war and economic strain, giving Democrats new opportunities in districts that once seemed safely Republican.
