Donald Trump has built a career on political comebacks, but a series of setbacks in the 2026 primary season and deteriorating poll numbers are prompting analysts to ask whether his iron grip on the Republican Party is finally slipping.
The dog days of August may be remembered as the turning point. In Minnesota, My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell, who spent years amplifying Trump's baseless claims about the 2020 election, lost the GOP gubernatorial primary despite the former president's endorsement. Even Lindell's touted ability to reach Trump directly couldn't save his campaign.
The pattern repeated across the country. In central Michigan, Trump's preferred congressional candidate, Amir Hassan, was defeated. In Tennessee, incumbent Rep. Andy Ogles, endorsed by Trump and bolstered by a livestreamed town hall appearance, lost his primary by seven points. In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra, whom Trump had praised as "MAGA All the Way," fell in the gubernatorial primary in June. Similar losses occurred in Georgia and South Carolina gubernatorial races.
These defeats are not isolated incidents but part of a broader trend. Trump's influence in Washington is also waning. Despite pressure from the White House, Senate Republicans have balked at advancing legislation based on his unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.
Even conservative media has begun to keep its distance. Stories about Trump's appearance, including questions about whether he wears a wig, have become more frequent. His Oval Office press conferences have shown a president struggling to stay alert and offering rambling, incoherent answers. Had a Democratic president delivered similar performances, Republicans would likely have called for impeachment or the 25th Amendment. Reports of Trump hiding in a catering truck during a security threat, using staff and press as decoys, have further eroded his image of strength.
The president's political standing has also been hurt by an increasingly unpopular war in Iran, now approaching six months with no clear objective and rising gas prices. Polls reflect the damage. The Economist's tracker puts his net approval at minus-25 points, and RealClearPolitics shows 59 percent disapproval. Fox News polls find him underwater on the economy, the war, and even immigration, where 57 percent now disapprove. CNN polling shows eroding support among his base, with approval among non-college white voters dropping from 61 percent to 46 percent since February of last year.
Voters are demanding change. Fox polling indicates 42 percent want revolutionary or dramatic shifts, and Hart Research shows a desire for an economy that benefits everyone, not just the wealthy. The Kalshi prediction market gives Democrats an 85 percent chance of winning the House, up from a 14 percent chance for Republicans to retain control.
A Democratic Congress would mean a barrage of subpoenas and investigations into Trump's sudden wealth increase during his second term, as well as efforts to reverse his policies or even impeach him. Never-Trump Republicans see the writing on the wall. Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark, has talked about pushing Trump below the "Bush line"—the record-low approval ratings George W. Bush faced when he left office—to ensure Trumpism is remembered as a failed project, much like Bush-era Republicanism after Iraq.
History may be rhyming. The 2026 midterms echo 2006, when a Republican president faced an unpopular Middle East war and a financial crisis, with corruption scandals swirling. Today, the war in Iran and economic anxieties, alongside scandals involving figures like Meredith O'Rourke and Max Miller, create a similar environment. Whether Trump can reverse this trajectory remains uncertain, but the evidence suggests his era may be drawing to a close.
