For any president other than Donald Trump, the current landscape would signal serious trouble. But Trump operates in a reality of his own making, where claiming victory is the ultimate exit strategy—no matter the facts.
Operation Epic Fury, launched to secure rapid regime change in Iran, is now entering its fifth month. What was supposed to be a decisive campaign has devolved into a grinding standoff. Despite repeated assurances that “peace is at hand,” a resolution remains elusive. Any eventual deal must guarantee permanent freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and produce a nuclear agreement far stronger than the Obama-era JCPOA.
Meanwhile, the economic picture is darkening. Gas, food, and commodity prices remain painfully high, eroding public support for both the war and the president. Democrats have seized on “affordability” as a rallying cry for the November midterms, hoping to flip the House and possibly the Senate. Trump’s comment that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons outweighs the public’s economic pain fell flat. His threat to bomb Oman, a U.S. ally for nearly two centuries, over potential tolls on the strait has further eroded trust among allies.
Yet Trump appears unfazed—or at least, he’s betting that his political invincibility will carry the day. In primaries, he remains undefeated; nearly every candidate he backed won, including challengers who unseated incumbents like Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. John Cornyn. He may believe that simply invoking his name will rally enough voters to keep Congress in Republican hands, even if he’s not on the ballot. A settlement with Iran, he hopes, would eventually lower energy costs and restore his standing.
But what if the war drags on, inflation persists, and prices stay high? Trump’s game plan, according to observers, rests on two pillars: negotiation and blame-shifting. He believes he can talk his way out of any impasse. Failing that, he’ll deny responsibility and point fingers elsewhere. His insistence that the 2020 election was stolen is a classic example of this refusal to accept failure.
There’s also a cynical calculus: Trump may not care whether Republicans hold Congress. If they do, it’s business as usual. If Democrats win both chambers, impeachment is likely but conviction is not, and Congress will be deadlocked anyway. Trump will simply accrue more power through executive orders, as he has before. Most have survived legal challenges, and any that don’t may not be resolved until after his term ends in 2029.
On Iran, Trump relies on semi-facts. He claims the U.S. “decimated” Iran’s air force and navy, and that the old guard’s death amounts to regime change. No matter how the uranium issue is resolved, he will declare it the best nuclear deal ever, and his MAGA base will believe him.
“Claiming victory is a good way out, no matter the validity of the claim,” wrote columnist Harlan Ullman. But reality is catching up. The world before the Feb. 28 attacks that began the Iranian “excursion” was safer and more stable than today’s. To most Americans, this war has been a disaster. But to Trump, it’s another opportunity to spin failure into success. And that, ultimately, is his game plan.
For more on Trump’s political maneuvering, see his recent White House meeting with Johnson over DOJ funds and the growing GOP complicity in his slush fund.
