With less than 48 hours to go before Election Day, a fresh NBC News survey has delivered a stark verdict on President Trump's tenure: 60 percent of respondents now disapprove of his job performance, the highest mark recorded in either of his terms. His approval rating sits at 40 percent, underscoring the steep challenge facing Republicans as they defend their congressional majorities.
The poll, conducted Oct. 28-30 among 1,000 voters (margin of error ±3.1 points), reveals deep unease over the economy. Three-quarters of respondents say they are dissatisfied with the nation's economic conditions, and nearly two-thirds are calling for a shift in Trump's economic approach. A full half demand "a great deal" of change, another record in NBC's polling history.
Personal financial sentiment is also souring. For the first time in three decades of asking, a narrow majority—51 percent—say they are unhappy with their own financial situation, versus 49 percent who are content. Even during the depths of the 2009 Great Recession, the split was more favorable, at 56-44.
Disappointment extends beyond the economy. Sixty-four percent of all respondents, including one-third of Trump voters, say he has fallen short of their expectations; only 34 percent feel he has met them. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who teamed with Republican Bill McInturff on the survey, summarized the president's record as "the promise of two years ago and the peril of two days from now."
Horwitt pointed to Trump's 2024 campaign pledge to lower costs and tame inflation, but voters are increasingly worried about high prices, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict with Iran. That anxiety is bleeding into the GOP base itself: 53 percent of Republicans are unsatisfied with the economy, and 37 percent say the party has not delivered on Trump's promises. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 46 percent disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency, and 20 percent would prefer Democrats to control Congress.
Trump retains rock-solid support from his core base, holding a 93 percent approval rating among self-identified MAGA voters. Yet that enthusiasm may not be enough to stave off a Democratic wave. Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's election partner, gives Democrats an 84 percent chance of winning the House and a 64 percent probability of taking the Senate.
Trump, in a "Pod Force One" interview slated to air Monday, vowed to become "Mr. Veto" should Democrats seize Congress, signaling a confrontational final two years of his term. That stance could intensify the lame-duck legislative battles already brewing on Capitol Hill.
The survey's grim numbers arrive as Trump closes his midterm campaign with a reflecting pool address, a symbolic finale that some allies hope will rally the base. But with the electorate clearly craving change, the president's message may be fighting against the tide. As Republicans brace for internal fights over his agenda if the midterms falter, the poll offers a sobering preview of what Tuesday may bring.
