Republican Rep. Andy Ogles (Tenn.) is projected to lose his primary in the 5th Congressional District to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, according to Decision Desk HQ. The result delivers a notable setback to President Trump, who had endorsed Ogles in the race.
Hatcher, the lone Republican challenger, is set to defeat Ogles in a contest that was significantly altered by a mid-decade redistricting plan pushed through by Tennessee's GOP-controlled legislature. The new map, signed by Gov. Bill Lee in May, shifted the district from a competitive Republican hold to a solidly red seat, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The redrawn boundaries placed more agricultural communities in the district, which strategists said played to Hatcher's strengths as a former agriculture official and physician. "Hatcher relates to folks in the newly drawn congressional district much better than the current occupant," said campaign consultant John Newman, speaking to Axios.
Hatcher will now face Democrat Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, in November. Molder has significantly outraised Hatcher, pulling in nearly $2.6 million compared to Hatcher's roughly $700,000, according to Federal Election Commission data. Despite that financial edge, the redistricting gives Hatcher a clear advantage in the general election, with the 9th District held by Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) also being redrawn to become solidly Republican.
Hatcher's campaign leaned heavily on his ties to Trump, with his website praising the president's work ethic and ability to get things done. A statement on his site took a direct jab at Ogles: "Trump would have been a fantastic farmer because he has that work ethic. But it might not be enough money for him! He gets things done. Think what President Trump could do if our congressman spent less time talking and more time doing."
Hatcher also secured endorsements from former Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, former Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam, and former Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.). His victory is seen as another test of Trump's influence in primaries, especially after the president's endorsement failed to save Ogles in a district that was redrawn to favor a different type of Republican.
The Tennessee primary also featured other closely watched races, including the GOP Senate contest and the governor's race. In the Senate primary, Bill Hagerty and Marquita Bradshaw are set for a rematch, while Marsha Blackburn clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination to succeed Lee. These results, along with Ogles' defeat, underscore how redistricting and candidate quality are shaping the state's political landscape.
With Hatcher now the heavy favorite in November, the 5th District is expected to remain in Republican hands, though Democrats hope Molder's fundraising and the national political environment could make the race competitive. For now, the primary outcome signals that even presidential endorsements can be overcome when district lines and local dynamics shift decisively.
