Republican Senate hopeful Mike Rogers is running out of time to close the gap against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, according to Decision Desk HQ's data science director, Scott Tranter. Speaking on NewsNation's “The Hill Sunday” with Chris Stirewalt, Tranter noted that El-Sayed holds a 67 percent probability of winning in November, leaving Rogers at just 33 percent.
“This one is closer than it should be if you’re the Republicans and want to keep the Senate,” Tranter said, underscoring the stakes for the GOP in a race that could determine control of the upper chamber. He added that El-Sayed has momentum that is “pretty undeniable,” with early voting set to begin in about a month. “Everything you know about Michigan—about a third of that voting will come in before Election Day. So Mike Rogers’s time is running out.”
The forecast reflects a tight race, with a recent Hill/Emerson College Polling survey showing El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The Democratic candidate, a physician and former public health official, has built a coalition that includes support from former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is scheduled to join El-Sayed at a roundtable on Black maternal health on Tuesday.
However, Harris’s involvement could be a double-edged sword. Stirewalt and Tranter agreed that her endorsement might alienate pro-Palestinian voters angered by the Biden administration’s stance on Israel. El-Sayed has been vocal in criticizing the Israeli government and expressing solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, a position that has drawn both praise and criticism.
Earlier this month, more than a dozen Michigan rabbis and Jewish leaders launched a petition urging El-Sayed to moderate his rhetoric on Israel, calling on him to affirm Jewish safety, recognize Israel’s right to exist, and encourage Jewish civic and political participation. The petition did not name El-Sayed directly but was clearly aimed at him.
Rogers, meanwhile, has faced scrutiny for skipping a televised debate last week, leaving El-Sayed to speak alone beside an empty podium for an hour. Rogers claimed he “never agreed” to the debate and accused the moderator, FOX 2 Detroit’s Roop Raj, of bias—an allegation Raj has denied. Rogers has pointed to two October debates as his opportunity to face El-Sayed directly.
The race has also seen a lighter moment: El-Sayed recently launched a retro video game taunting Rogers over his move to Florida, a jab that underscores the contrasting profiles of the candidates. As the campaign enters its final stretch, Rogers’s path to victory appears increasingly narrow, with early voting looming and El-Sayed holding a steady lead in the polls.
