President Trump and his Republican allies are fighting against the clock, hoping to bring inflation under control before the November midterm elections. The stakes are high, and the latest economic indicators offer a mixed picture.
New data released last week on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed inflation above 4 percent. Even excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation stood at 3.4 percent for the year ending in May. This makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, despite Trump's public pressure for lower rates.
Gas prices remain a burden for many households. According to AAA, the national average cost per gallon was $3.90 on Friday. While down from its peak, that is still nearly a dollar higher than before Trump's military strike on Iran in late February.
However, there are signs of relief. Oil prices have dropped sharply, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $70 a barrel—barely above pre-war levels and far below its April high of $112. This decline should eventually translate into lower prices at the pump and across the economy.
“We have time, but we don’t have that much time,” said GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak. “There are several reasons for Republicans to believe things are going to get better. The questions are: How much better are they going to get, and how much are voters going to feel it?”
Polling shows the challenge Trump faces. In RealClearPolitics averages, his net approval on inflation is nearly 40 points negative. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 22 percent of adults approve of his handling of cost-of-living issues, while 69 percent disapprove. This is a sharp reversal from 2024, when 32 percent of voters ranked the economy as the top issue and more than 80 percent of them backed Trump over Kamala Harris.
The stock market has performed well—the S&P 500 is up about 20 percent since Trump’s second inauguration—but inflation has stayed stubborn. In November 2024, the annual inflation rate was 2.7 percent. A year later, it was the same. It dipped early this year but rose again after the conflict with Iran. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for May show inflation at 4.2 percent, the highest in three years.
Trump has long argued that inflation and gas prices would fall “like a rock” once the war ended. White House spokesperson Kush Desai told this column that last week’s PCE numbers were “expectation-beating” and that “temporary disruptions to energy markets as a result of the Iranian conflict are not passing through to non-energy goods.” He added that with the Iran memorandum of understanding in effect, “energy prices are plummeting—and overall inflation will quickly follow suit.”
Trump himself took to social media last week, asking the Justice Department to investigate why oil companies aren’t lowering prices at the pump in line with falling crude costs, accusing them of “gouging.” But outside experts are skeptical that inflation will ease enough to shift voter sentiment by November. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said inflation should moderate but called it “a long road back,” predicting it won’t reach the Fed’s 2 percent target until “this time next year at the earliest.”
Democrats are working to keep the focus on inflation. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer recently argued on the Senate floor that “Trumpflation is getting worse and worse” and that “Republicans aren’t just failing to address the affordability crisis, they’re making it worse.” The administration remains confident, but the clock is ticking. GOP senators have expressed concern that Trump’s economic messaging could backfire, and Senator Tillis has called some legislative priorities an 'impossible task' before the midterms. Meanwhile, a Democrat warns Trump might skip a bipartisan housing bill, calling it 'good politics' to sign—but nothing is certain in this high-stakes race.
