A fresh Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday paints a picture of a fractured GOP primary field in South Carolina, where no candidate has emerged as a clear front-runner to succeed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. The race to fill the seat left vacant by Graham’s sudden death from an aortic dissection at age 71 remains wide open, with 17.9% of likely Republican primary voters still undecided.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) leads the pack with 16.4% support, followed closely by businessowner and ordained deacon Mark Lynch at 12.5%. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) pulls in 10.1%, while Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette stands at 9.9%. Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) earns 9.4%, Gov. Henry McMaster locks down 7.7%, and former Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) receives 5.4%. Current Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R-S.C.), appointed by McMaster on Monday to fill her late brother’s seat, garnered 5.9% support.
The special primary is set for Aug. 11, with a potential runoff on Aug. 25 if no candidate clears 50%. The winner will face the Democratic nominee in the November general election for the right to serve the remainder of Graham’s term, which runs through Jan. 3, 2027. Graham was in the middle of seeking his fifth term when he died.
The crowded field reflects the uncertainty surrounding Graham’s legacy and the shifting dynamics of South Carolina politics. Graham, a fixture in the Senate known for his hawkish foreign policy and occasional bipartisanship, left a void that has drawn a diverse array of contenders. McMaster’s appointment of Nordone, a relative newcomer to statewide politics, has added another layer of complexity, as she now holds the seat but must compete in the primary to keep it.
The poll, conducted July 14-15 among 500 likely Republican primary voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The high undecided rate suggests that many voters are still weighing their options, and the race could shift dramatically as candidates ramp up campaigning and advertising in the weeks ahead.
Graham’s death has also reshaped national conversations, particularly on foreign policy. As Graham's death reshapes Ukraine policy, his absence leaves a void in the Senate’s push for continued aid to Kyiv and a harder line on Iran and Taiwan. Meanwhile, Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in to fill the seat, but her low poll numbers underscore the challenge she faces in convincing voters she deserves to keep it.
Some potential heavyweights, like former Trump administration official Bessent, have already ruled out a run for Graham's Senate seat, calling his current role the best job in Washington. That decision has left the field open to lesser-known figures, making the primary a test of grassroots organizing and local appeal rather than national name recognition.
The winner of the Aug. 11 primary will inherit a seat that Graham used to shape debates on everything from judicial confirmations to immigration. As the GOP base in South Carolina weighs its options, the outcome could signal the direction of the party in a state that has been a bellwether for conservative politics.
