President Trump's endorsement power faces a critical test in Oklahoma's Republican gubernatorial runoff on Tuesday, where his chosen candidate, Mike Mazzei, is locked in a tight race against Attorney General Gentner Drummond.
Mazzei, a former state senator and budget secretary, trailed Drummond by less than a percentage point in the June primary, with neither candidate securing the majority needed to avoid a runoff. The winner of the runoff is heavily favored to win the governor's mansion in November, given Oklahoma's deep Republican tilt.
Trump has intensified his attacks on Drummond in the final stretch, hoping to push Mazzei across the finish line. The runoff, along with a special Senate runoff in South Carolina, serves as one of the last major primary gauges of Trump's political influence, especially after five of his gubernatorial picks in open primaries have already lost this cycle.
"This is a classic test," said Seth McKee, a political science professor at Oklahoma State University. "Because this endorsement is doing the heavy lifting in this race."
Trump's decision to back Mazzei surprised many, as Drummond, a rancher, was seen as a frontrunner for the seat vacated by term-limited Governor Kevin Stitt. The endorsement came just two weeks before the June primary, giving Mazzei a boost but not enough to secure an outright win.
"It's really this test of: Can a Trump endorsement get a dud over the finish line?" McKee said.
Tyler Powell, an Oklahoma-based political advisor not involved in the race, noted that Mazzei has relied heavily on the Trump endorsement. "He's been purely relying on the Trump endorsement as his pitch to voters, and I think Oklahoma voters were getting turned off," Powell said.
The endorsement has also drawn scrutiny after reports that Mazzei's campaign paid nearly $70,000 to Trump confidante Roger Stone for consulting services. Mazzei has denied any impropriety, insisting his alignment with Trump earned the endorsement.
Trump's opposition to Drummond stems from Drummond's legal challenge to a planned aluminum smelter, a Trump-backed project that would be the largest of its kind in the U.S. Drummond has argued the project threatens local residents and lands. Trump has also accused Drummond of insufficient support during his impeachments and of donating to Biden and the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, though Drummond's campaign says those donations were made in his wife's name.
"I respect President Trump and the work he is doing for our country, but we are not going to agree on every issue," Drummond said in a statement. "On the aluminum smelter, the President and I simply disagree. My responsibility as Attorney General is to protect Oklahoma's land, water and people."
The runoff has been marked by bitter exchanges, including a public dispute over drug tests. Mazzei released a negative drug test this week after Drummond pressured him to do so, though Drummond accused Mazzei of misleading voters by only completing one type of test.
Trump's endorsement remains a major asset in Oklahoma, a state he won by more than 30 points in each of his three presidential runs. Republicans dominate the state's congressional delegation, and the last Democrat to win the governorship was in 2006. However, Trump's approval ratings have ticked down slightly in the state, adding to the stakes of this runoff.
As the race heads to the wire, the outcome will be closely watched as a barometer of Trump's continued influence over the GOP base. Related coverage includes Trump's campaign for Darline Graham in the South Carolina runoff, and his recent clash with GOP lawmakers over tariffs, which highlight the broader dynamics of his political pull.
