Democrats are riding high on expectations of a blue wave this November, buoyed by polling and political momentum. But a former Clinton White House and Kamala Harris campaign staffer is warning the party not to confuse midterm success with a winning formula for 2028.
Ben Austin, who worked in the White House political office during the 1994 midterm wipeout, recalls how Democrats were blindsided by a Republican tsunami that cost them control of both chambers for the first time in 40 years. “We didn’t see it coming,” he writes, describing the chaotic election night when junior staffers and even interns were dispatched to inform President Clinton of the losses.
The lesson, Austin argues, is that midterm victories fueled by anti-Trump sentiment can create a dangerous illusion. “Midterm victories can create the illusion that partisan backlash is enough,” he says. “In presidential politics, it rarely is.” He points to Clinton’s 1996 reelection as an example: after the 1994 disaster, Clinton ran as an outsider challenging his own party’s orthodoxies and easily defeated Bob Dole.
Austin contends that successful Democratic presidents since FDR—Clinton and Barack Obama—ran as change agents against status quo interests, including teachers unions. “Voters elect members of Congress to vote with their party,” he writes. “They elect presidents to stand with the people.”
Education emerges as a key battleground for the party’s soul. Austin highlights former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who has been driving early debate with a sharp critique: “We’ve become so obsessed with bathroom access that we’ve ignored classroom excellence.” Emanuel advocates for reforms that have worked in deep-red Mississippi, such as the Science of Reading, ending social promotion, and embracing charter schools as a progressive alternative to Trump’s national voucher plan.
Other potential 2028 contenders with records of challenging party interests include New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. But Austin warns that Democrats cannot afford to nominate another “special interest-approved insider” and hope to defy history.
The stakes are high. With American democracy and global stability on the line, Austin urges the party to look beyond the midterm mirage and embrace candidates willing to take on their own base. “Not being Trump will likely win the midterms,” he concludes, “but is far from sufficient to win the presidency.”
For more on the strategic divide, read Democrats See Growing Divide Over Midterm Strategy: Anti-Trump Anger vs. Policy Vision. And with polls showing Democrats Lead by 6 Points in Key Midterm Battleground Districts, the temptation to coast on anti-Trump energy is real.
