The Cook Political Report, a leading nonpartisan election handicapper, has moved 18 U.S. House races in the Democrats' direction, a clear signal that the political environment remains hostile to Republicans as the 2026 midterms approach. The changes, announced Friday, affect a swath of battleground districts and open seats, and they suggest that President Trump's handling of the economy and the ongoing war in Iran is weighing heavily on GOP candidates.
Among the Republican incumbents whose races shifted toward the Democratic column are Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Zach Nunn (Iowa), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Rob Wittman (Va.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), French Hill (Ark.), and Victoria Spartz (Ind.). These are lawmakers in districts that range from competitive to previously safe, and their moves reflect a broader deterioration in Republican prospects.
At the same time, several Democratic incumbents saw their races move further in their favor, including Reps. Susie Lee (Nev.), Tom Suozzi (N.Y.), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Marie Glusenkamp Perez (Wash.), and Don Davis (N.C.). The report also shifted four open seats toward Democrats: Nebraska's 2nd, Iowa's 2nd, Kentucky's 6th, and Maine's 2nd districts.
In her analysis, Cook Political Report's House editor, Erin Covey, wrote: "With these new moves, we're also adjusting our range: the most likely outcome is now that Democrats will pick up nine to 19 seats. At this point, Democrats only need to win 20 percent of the Toss Ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way." Based on the updated ratings, Democrats would hold between 224 and 234 seats, which would be enough to reclaim the House majority.
The shifts are particularly notable in districts that have traditionally leaned Republican. Many of these seats were carried by Trump in both of his presidential bids, but his approval ratings on the economy have sunk to historic lows, and the war in Iran has driven up gas prices to an average of $4.37 per gallon on Friday, a 40 percent increase from a year ago, according to AAA. Diesel prices, a key cost for transportation and rural communities, have also spiked to around $6.28 per gallon.
Tariffs on U.S. trading partners, especially Canada, have also hurt states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine, which rely heavily on cross-border trade. U.S. trade with Canada totaled an estimated $872.3 billion in 2025, according to the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, and the new duties are adding to economic strain in those regions.
Covey highlighted the Kentucky 6th district as a prime example of the changing landscape. "On paper, this open seat should be difficult for a Democrat to win," she wrote. "Trump carried the district by 15 points, and [Barr], now running for Senate, won reelection by 27 points. But polling from both parties shows Democratic prosecutor Zach Dembo and former Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado neck-and-neck."
The report's moves come as Democrats are already eyeing a broader map, with Kansas Senate race tightening and other opportunities emerging. Some Democratic lawmakers are also pushing to curb presidential tariff powers, a move that could resonate with voters in trade-dependent districts. The political fallout from the administration's policies is likely to be a central theme in the coming months as the midterm elections draw nearer.
