Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) holds a slim 3-point lead over Democrat Troy Jackson in her bid for a sixth term, according to a new survey from The New York Times and Siena College. The poll, conducted Sept. 15-22 in collaboration with The Portland Press Herald, shows Collins with 49 percent support to Jackson's 46 percent among 619 likely voters, with 5 percent undecided.
The incumbent's edge falls within the poll's roughly 5 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical dead heat. The survey also reveals significant demographic splits: Jackson leads Collins by 9 points among women, 18 points among voters aged 30-44, and 34 points among Hispanic voters. Collins, meanwhile, holds strong advantages among men (16 points), voters aged 45-64 (19 points), white voters (6 points), and Black voters (18 points).
The race is pivotal for Democrats' hopes of retaking the Senate. Decision Desk HQ currently gives Jackson a 54 percent chance of victory, and the party needs a net gain of four seats to win the majority. Jackson, a progressive who lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary in June to former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, entered the race in July after initial nominee Graham Platner withdrew amid sexual assault allegations he denied.
Jackson's campaign has centered on progressive pillars such as Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and raising taxes on billionaires and corporations. He has also sought to tie Collins to President Trump, who lost Maine in all three of his presidential runs. However, Collins has broken with Trump on several occasions this summer, criticizing his tariff war with Canada and voting against Attorney General Todd Blanche's confirmation.
Collins, along with independent Sen. Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats, has also pushed back on some administration policies. Last week, the two urged the Senate Commerce Committee to take up House-passed legislation that would extend a pause on whaling regulations—a bill championed by Maine's lobster industry. The Northeast Lobstermen Protection Act, sponsored by outgoing Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) in the House, is seen as a key issue for the state's coastal economy.
The poll's findings come as other recent surveys show Democrats ahead in key Senate races in Michigan and New Hampshire, signaling a potentially favorable environment for the party nationally. However, Maine's race remains tight, reflecting the state's independent streak and Collins's long incumbency.
Jackson's progressive platform may resonate with younger and minority voters, but Collins's appeal to older and white voters could prove decisive. The race is likely to be one of the most closely watched in the country as control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
Political analysts note that recent shifts in other states have made the Senate map more competitive for Democrats, but Maine remains a key battleground. With the election approaching, both campaigns are expected to intensify their outreach to undecided voters, particularly those in the crucial 5 percent who have yet to make up their minds.
