Fresh surveys from The New York Times and Siena College released Thursday indicate that Democratic candidates are holding their ground in two pivotal Senate battlegrounds, while a Republican incumbent is clawing back in another.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The gap mirrors recent polling that has shown the Democrat with a consistent, if modest, advantage in the race to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
New Hampshire's contest is similarly tight, with Democrat Chris Pappas ahead of Republican John Sununu by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. Both candidates carry net-negative favorability ratings of minus 1, according to the survey, but independents—a decisive voting bloc in the Granite State—prefer Pappas by a 10-point margin.
The polling also offers a glimmer of hope for Republicans in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins has moved ahead of Democratic challenger Troy Jackson by 3 points. That marks a reversal from earlier surveys by CNN and YouGov that showed Jackson narrowly leading, and it could ease GOP concerns about holding a seat that has been a top Democratic target.
Across all three states, voters expressed widespread discontent with President Trump. Sixty-three percent said they disapprove of his overall job performance, and 65 percent specifically disapprove of his handling of the economy—a figure that has slipped since the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year.
The surveys also underscore the challenging political environment for Republicans. Forty percent of respondents identified as independents, and among that group, 50 percent said they lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with 39 percent who lean Republican. That tilt is consistent with broader national trends, as seen in recent generic ballot polling that shows Democrats with a lead.
The New York Times/Siena polls were conducted September 15–22, surveying 619 registered voters in Maine, 605 in Michigan, and 613 in New Hampshire. The margin of error is approximately 4.9 percentage points in each state, and 2.8 points for the combined sample.
These numbers come as Democrats aim to defend their narrow Senate majority, and they will likely fuel optimism that the party can hold competitive seats like Michigan and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, the Maine result may bolster Republican hopes of flipping a seat, though the race remains within the margin of error.
The president's sagging approval numbers, particularly on the economy, could weigh on Republican candidates in these states. As Democrats continue to press their case on issues like tariff refunds for consumers and tougher AI chip export curbs, the political landscape remains fluid with just weeks until Election Day.
