The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Wednesday adjusted its ratings for the Kansas and South Carolina Senate races in favor of Democrats, with just over a month remaining before the November midterms.
In Kansas, the race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." In South Carolina, the contest between Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews moved from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican."
Economic Pressures in Kansas
Cook Political Report highlighted agriculture as a key driver in the Kansas race, particularly high fuel and fertilizer prices and trade tensions affecting beef. These increased costs have made the contest more competitive. Additionally, President Trump's recent announcement that he would stop purchasing planes from Canadian aircraft maker Bombardier, which operates a major plant in Wichita, has added to the political headwinds for Marshall.
Cook editor Jessica Taylor noted in her analysis that "some private GOP polling has Marshall with more of an advantage than public polls and some private Democratic surveys that show a dead heat." She also reported that Republican sources acknowledge "weak spots" for Marshall that require attention, describing it as an "increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge."
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill's election partner, projects Marshall has a 79% chance of winning, while recent polling from The Hill/Emerson College shows Hamilton with a 2-point lead, 45-43.
South Carolina's Family Name Challenge
In South Carolina, Taylor pointed to Graham's uneven debate performances and noted she could "face backlash for being elevated to the job purely because of her family name." Graham, who was appointed to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, after his death in July, has not received a quick and full endorsement from her primary rival, Rep. Ralph Norman.
There is also a grassroots conservative campaign urging voters to write in Norman's name on the November ballot, though sources close to Graham dismiss its impact as minimal.
Andrews remains stuck in the mid-40s in polls, but a $2.5 million ad campaign from the Democratic group Fresh Start South Carolina could provide a boost. Taylor wrote that Andrews is "running a real race" and that this support could make it "a truly competitive contest."
However, Taylor added, "some in-state Republicans express enough angst about Graham's soft numbers and fears of low turnout that it moves from Solid to Likely Republican." DDHQ gives Graham a 74% chance of holding the seat versus Andrews's 26%.
Cook Political Report overall sees Democrats gaining one to five Senate seats, but Taylor noted there is a "very blue environment forming," though it remains unclear if Democrats can convert that "national wave into a Senate sweep."
