In a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate in over four decades, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is now in a fight for her political survival as challenger Scott Colom has turned the race into a genuine nail-biter. With ballots still being counted, Colom holds a narrow lead, and the outcome could hinge on a handful of counties.
Decision Desk HQ's initial projections gave Hyde-Smith a 91 percent chance of victory, but the picture has shifted dramatically. By Friday afternoon, Colom was ahead by roughly 2,700 votes, with thousands of ballots yet to be tallied. The race has drawn national attention, and the contest remains too close to call as both campaigns await final results.
Colom's gains are most striking in areas that Hyde-Smith carried decisively in 2020. In DeSoto County, part of the Memphis suburbs, Colom leads by about 6 points, a stark reversal from Hyde-Smith's 16-point margin there just two years ago. On the Gulf Coast, her lead in Harrison County has shrunk from 17 points to a mere 4 points, according to preliminary counts.
Even in deep-red Pearl River County, where Republicans typically dominate, Colom has made inroads. He drew about 4,000 votes, or 24 percent of the count, compared to the 2,400 votes (22 percent) that Democrat Brandon Presley received in the 2023 gubernatorial race. This suggests that some GOP voters are crossing party lines, a trend that Brannon Miller, whose consulting firm ran a super PAC effort targeting Republicans, attributes directly to Colom's messaging.
“There's literally no other explanation,” Miller said. “These are places where Democrats get less than 15 percent of the vote in a presidential year. There are not Democrats there to turn out. So when Scott Colom doubles the number of votes that Brandon Presley got in some of these counties, or close to it, that has to be coming from white Republicans flipping and voting for the first Black senator since Reconstruction.”
The super PAC, New Southern Majority, spent just under $1 million to reach about 200,000 GOP voters with ads criticizing Hyde-Smith on issues like the war in Iran, high gas prices, tariffs, and her support for data centers. The backlash to a data center in DeSoto County, which has generated complaints about noise, appears to have resonated locally. County Democratic Party Chair Deborah Williams also cited the data center issue but emphasized the ground game: organizers knocked on nearly 70,000 doors and boosted absentee ballots.
“I think Scott had a lot to do with bringing that sense of pride back to the state of Mississippi, and people did embrace that,” Williams said, noting that many young voters waited hours in the rain to cast ballots. The New York Times estimates that voters under 30 backed Colom by a 62-33 margin, a 44-point swing toward Democrats from 2024.
Arekia Bennett-Scott, executive director of Mississippi Votes, said youth engagement has been building for years, but the recent fight over redistricting energized young people to see voting as a tool. “They understand that voting is a tool, not the only tool, but it's a tool that they can fight back with this particular election cycle,” she said.
Meanwhile, the GOP Senate arm has moved to preserve ballots, signaling that the outcome may not be settled quickly. With no automatic recount law in place, the final tally could face legal challenges. As counting continues, Colom's performance has turned a once-safe seat into a potential upset, with implications for the national balance of power.
