Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is poised to finish among the top two in Tuesday's California gubernatorial primary, a stunning turnaround for a candidate who was stuck in single digits just months ago. The race to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom has been reshaped by the sudden withdrawal of former Representative Eric Swalwell, opening a path for Becerra to consolidate Democratic support.
Democrats point to several catalysts for Becerra's momentum: Swalwell's exit in mid-April after sexual assault allegations; Becerra's statewide experience as California attorney general; voter skepticism toward billionaire candidates like Tom Steyer; and the historic possibility of electing the state's first Latino governor in over a century. Internal polls show Becerra leading the pack, with Republican Steve Hilton and Steyer vying for the second spot in the nonpartisan primary's top-two runoff.
However, some Democrats caution against counting Steyer out. Veteran strategist Darry Sragow noted that a large bloc of undecided voters—likely Democrats—could swing late. "There's a huge chunk of votes that are sitting out there uncommitted at the moment," Sragow said. "My guess is most of them are Democrats, because Republicans make up their minds early. It may be that Steyer, as well as Becerra, benefits from a surge."
Becerra has framed his candidacy around his tenure leading HHS under President Biden, his four years as California's top law enforcement officer, and 12 terms in Congress on the Ways and Means Committee. "You need someone who's gone through tough times and knows how to balance a big budget, deal with emergencies and crises," Becerra told KCRA 3 in April. His campaign has drawn support from former Swalwell endorsers, including the California Medical Association and California Professional Firefighters, while the California Teachers Association moved to Steyer.
The race has attracted massive spending, with at least $31 million in outside money targeting Steyer, according to AdImpact. Steyer, worth an estimated $2.4 billion, has poured over $200 million of the roughly $315 million total into his campaign. He positions himself as a "change" candidate pushing single-payer healthcare and higher taxes on the wealthy, arguing that corporate opposition proves his credibility. "The billionaires and corporations have lined up against me, supporting everybody but me, in particular Xavier Becerra," Steyer said in an interview with MS NOW.
Political analysts attribute Becerra's rise to his deep resume and the vacuum left by Swalwell. Jack Pitney of Claremont McKenna College said Democrats coalesced around Becerra "not because of great enthusiasm, but because he cleared the bar for most of them." Pitney noted that Becerra assumed the role of "anti-Trump candidate" in the blue state, while former Representative Katie Porter faced controversies over staff interactions, and Steyer suffered from "Michael Bloomberg disease"—skepticism toward billionaire candidates.
Latino voters, who make up about 30% of California's electorate, are a key factor. After shifting toward President Trump in 2024, they have shown renewed Democratic support in 2025 redistricting efforts. Consultant Danielle Cendejas called this a "driving force" for Becerra. "In a tight race, that can make a difference if Latino voters start coalescing and turning out," she said.
Becerra hasn't escaped criticism. He has faced scrutiny over his handling of unaccompanied migrant children at HHS, some of whom were later found working illegally in factories and farms. Still, his campaign has gained traction, with polls showing him as the top Democrat in a field of nearly two dozen candidates. The primary's outcome will set the stage for a November general election that could reshape California's political landscape.
