A fresh poll from Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics, released Saturday, places former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) at 28 percent support among likely voters, giving him a 6-point edge over his nearest rivals in the final stretch before Tuesday’s June 2 primary. Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) follows at 22 percent, while former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton (R) trails closely at 21 percent.
Becerra’s rise has been dramatic. In September 2025, he commanded just 5 percent support; by March, that had slipped to 3 percent. But his fortunes turned sharply in April, when Representative Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) dropped out of the race after multiple women accused him of sexual assault and misconduct. Becerra’s support jumped 7 points that month, and he has since consolidated his frontrunner status.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The Republican field remains fractured. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco lags at 12 percent, well behind Hilton. Kimball noted that if Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton stands to gain. For Steyer, the path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters and preventing Becerra from further expanding his coalition.
Representative Katie Porter (D-Calif.) has seen her support collapse. She entered the race in September 2025 with 16 percent backing, but the latest survey puts her at just 5 percent. Undecided voters have shrunk to 5 percent, the lowest point yet, down from a high of 39 percent in October 2025.
Voter commitment is high: nearly three-quarters say they will definitely support their chosen candidate. That figure is strongest for Hilton and Bianco supporters, both at 88 percent, while 76 percent of Becerra voters are locked in. Twenty-four percent of Becerra’s backers say they could still change their minds.
Becerra’s lead aligns with a Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week, which also put him ahead. If he wins the general election, Becerra would become California’s first Latino governor since José Antonio Romualdo Pacheco, who served briefly in 1875.
The Emerson survey, conducted May 27-28 among 1,000 respondents, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. As the primary approaches, Becerra’s coalition appears to be broadening, but the race remains fluid enough that either Steyer or Hilton could still force a runoff in November.
For more on Becerra’s rise and the dynamics of the race, see our earlier coverage of how his surge followed Swalwell’s exit, and his evolving stance on the death penalty.
