Democrats may be feeling optimistic about the 2026 midterms, but veteran pollster Celinda Lake warns that the path to victory runs through two overlooked groups of women: those who skipped the last election and those who flipped to Trump.
While President Trump's approval ratings remain underwater and inflation continues to sting even his base, Lake argues that a Democratic blowout is far from guaranteed. The fragile Iran deal could boost Trump's numbers, and Republicans have amassed a massive war chest. Recent primary wins by Trump loyalists and the Supreme Court's redistricting decision have created a map that favors the GOP.
Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, writes in a new analysis that Democrats cannot rely on Republican missteps alone. Instead, they must expand their coalition by reaching women who voted Democratic in prior elections but sat out 2024 — the so-called "skippers" — and women who voted for Trump last time but might be persuaded to switch, or "flippers."
The numbers are stark. A New York Times-Siena poll found that 66 percent of women disapprove of Trump's job performance. An Emerson College poll from late April showed Democrats with a 21-point lead among women for the midterms. Unmarried women — about a quarter of the electorate in battleground states — are at least 14 points less supportive of Trump than unmarried men. Among young women, 60 percent disapprove of Trump, compared to 51 percent of young men.
If these women turn out, Democrats could replicate the 2018 wave, which produced the largest gender gap in 21st-century midterm history. Recent Democratic wins in New Jersey, Virginia, Texas, and Wisconsin may signal a shift. But midterms are notorious for low turnout among young and lower-income voters, two key Democratic constituencies. Meanwhile, 87 percent of MAGA voters supported Trump's Iran war, and newly gerrymandered House districts could lock in Republican advantages.
Lake's July 2025 analysis, "Understanding the Missing Biden Voters," found that Democratic skippers numbered in the double-digit millions. If those women had turned out for Kamala Harris in 2024, she would have beaten Trump by 8,000 votes in Wisconsin and erased up to 88 percent of Trump's margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. The issues that could bring them back include cost of living, healthcare expenses, and a sense of chaos at home and abroad.
Flippers are even more potent. Each flipped vote subtracts from Trump and adds to the Democratic total. Lake's team found that if less than 2 percent of Trump's white non-college voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had switched to Harris, she would have won the election. A similar small shift among women could decide the 2026 races, even in redrawn districts.
Historically, white women and non-college women have been strong Trump supporters. In 2024, he won 53 percent of white women and 63 percent of white non-college women. One in nine women who found Trump's views too extreme still voted for him. But the ground is shifting. Five mid-May polls — from Fox News, CNN, NPR/PBS/Marist, Pew Research Center, and CBS News-YouGov — showed a majority of non-college white Americans now disapprove of Trump. In early April, his approval among white non-college women had dropped 28 points since the 2024 election.
Those numbers should frighten Republican strategists, but they won't automatically translate into Democratic votes. Lake stresses that Democrats must actively reach and persuade these women, especially if the Iran war ends and gas prices fall. "If we want to lock up a victory in November, these women hold the keys," she writes.
For context, the White House has awarded a $500 million no-bid contract to a Trump-linked builder, and Trump's Iran deal has drawn criticism for undermining U.S. credibility with China, Russia, and North Korea. Meanwhile, Trump has demanded gas price cuts amid the Iran conflict, warning of "big problems."
The Supreme Court has handed Trump a major win on firing power but a loss on mail-in ballots. And a new book reveals Trump's "no limits" power claim, drawing dictator comparisons. As the midterms approach, the battle for women's votes may well decide control of Congress.
