The United States' arsenal of advanced offensive and defensive munitions has been significantly depleted after more than five months of airstrikes against Iran, weakening President Trump's leverage in ongoing negotiations and limiting his options for a major escalation, according to recent reports and defense experts.
Military officials have confirmed that the supply of key long-range missiles and missile defense interceptors is nearly exhausted, a situation that former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called “poor planning” by the Pentagon. In an interview on CNN, Panetta warned that this depletion comes at a dangerous time, with potential threats from Russia and China, particularly if Beijing moves on Taiwan.
Reuters reported that the Army has used up virtually all of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), both manufactured by Lockheed Martin. ATACMS, launched from HIMARS mobile launchers, can strike targets up to 200 miles away with a 400-pound payload. PrSM, designed to replace ATACMS, has a range exceeding 300 miles and can be fired from HIMARS and M270 launchers. Even before the conflict, PrSM was scarce, with only about 90 available, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report from April.
The depletion is not limited to offensive weapons. CNN reported that the U.S. has expended nearly 80 percent of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and about half of its Patriot interceptors. Prior to the Iran war, the Pentagon held roughly 450 THAADs and 2,200 Patriots; as of late July, only between 234 and 278 THAADs remained, per CSIS.
President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have defended the state of the stockpiles, with Trump threatening to hunt down those who leak sensitive information about munitions numbers. However, analysts argue that Iran was already aware of the constraints, as unclassified sources provide ample evidence of the shortages. Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities noted that Iran likely planned to prolong the war, knowing the U.S. would face logistical limits. “Do the shortages affect U.S. leverage? Definitely,” she said, but added that public coverage has not changed Tehran's calculus.
Ari Cicurel of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America echoed that sentiment, saying Iran's awareness of U.S. reluctance to escalate gives it an advantage in negotiations, and Beijing is also watching how long Washington could sustain a conflict over Taiwan. Cicurel called for sustained multiyear appropriations and expanded production capacity, urging Congress to fund munitions contracts and the Pentagon to address supply chain bottlenecks.
Despite increased production efforts, industry experts say it will take years to replenish the stockpiles to pre-war levels. The shortages have reportedly influenced Trump's decision not to launch an expanded airstrike campaign, despite at least five threats to do so in recent months. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue, with Oman and Iran negotiating over the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice President Vance saying progress has been made but cautioning that the talks are in the “middle of the game.”
The situation underscores the broader challenges facing the U.S. military as it balances multiple global commitments. As Trump's second-term agenda faces legal and political roadblocks, the defense posture remains a critical issue. The administration's approach to Iran and the broader Middle East will be closely watched, especially as the demographic shifts and other domestic factors shape the political landscape.
