The race to replace retiring Michigan Democratic Senator Gary Peters is shaping up as a pivotal battle that could either stall the progressive surge within the Democratic Party or give it new momentum—and potentially determine Senate control for the remainder of President Trump's term.
Last month, the United Auto Workers endorsed Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive candidate, in the Democratic primary for Michigan's open Senate seat. This move marks a sharp departure for a union traditionally aligned with establishment Democrats and a longtime ally of former President Joe Biden. The endorsement risks alienating rank-and-file members who may not share El-Sayed's far-left views.
Recent polling suggests Black and working-class voters are skeptical of democratic socialism and candidates like El-Sayed. Democrats have already lost significant support among men; if union leaders push too far left, they could further erode the party's base among working-class and Black voters. This is a critical concern given that Democrats captured 57% of the union vote in 2024, building on Biden's 56% in 2020—a rare bright spot for the Harris-Walz ticket despite their overall loss.
Why would UAW leadership back a candidate endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over more moderate contenders like establishment favorite Congresswoman Haley Stevens? The answer lies in the union's evolving membership. Desperate to reverse declining numbers, the UAW has expanded beyond auto manufacturing, adding about 100,000 members from higher education—including post-doctoral researchers and adjunct faculty. This group now makes up over a quarter of UAW members, according to the Detroit Press, and has driven a more activist, progressive agenda.
The union's 2022 election reforms, intended to empower rank-and-file members, have instead amplified the influence of university teaching assistants. This leftward shift was evident in New York's Democratic primaries, where democratic socialist Claire Valdez won her race for Congress in District 7. Valdez, a former Columbia University program assistant and UAW member, campaigned on abolishing ICE, Medicare for All, and universal rent control. Notably, she also pledged to redirect federal dollars from highways to public transit, walking, and biking—a stance that clashes with the interests of auto workers on Detroit's assembly lines.
It raises a pointed question: Do UAW members in Michigan know that their union's endorsed candidate opposes automobile-centric infrastructure and wants to cut federal highway spending? Such policies could directly threaten their livelihoods. In 2024, 57% of Michigan union households voted for Kamala Harris, while Trump won 41% and carried the state by 1.4 points. If the UAW's leadership continues to embrace anti-auto policies, it could alienate its own members and hand Republicans a prime opportunity to flip Peters's seat.
Democratic leaders are acutely aware of this risk. Worried that El-Sayed might become the nominee and lose to Republican Mike Rogers—a veteran, former FBI agent, and seven-term congressman who narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024—they pressured state Senator Mallory McMorrow, who was running a distant third, to drop out, which she did on July 6. The goal is to consolidate moderate support behind Stevens to avoid a primary win by El-Sayed, whom party insiders view as unelectable in a general election.
Michigan remains a swing state; Trump carried it in 2016 and 2024. While progressive candidates often win in deep-blue districts, Michigan is not one of them. The Cook Political Report rates this Senate race a toss-up. As the primary approaches, the UAW's endorsement of El-Sayed could either energize the party's left flank or expose a deepening rift that Republicans are eager to exploit.
For more on the broader Democratic divisions, see RNC Chair Gruters: Democrats in 'Death Spiral' as Progressive Candidates Win Primaries and House Democrats Face Internal Rift as Progressives Gain, GOP Stalls on Iran.
