President Trump's much-touted agreement with Russia to supply diesel to global markets may not deliver the price relief he has promised, according to energy analysts who say the announced volumes largely mirror what Moscow is already shipping.
Trump announced last week that Russia would "immediately" send 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets, with an additional 500,000 tons in November. He also floated figures of 1 million tons "immediately thereafter" and 3 million tons in a "short period of time," drawing sharp criticism from Democrats and some Republicans who see it as a reward for Moscow amid its war on Ukraine.
But data from Kpler shows Russia exported about 141,000 barrels per day in September and 178,000 barrels per day in October, which converts to roughly 584,000 metric tons and 722,000 metric tons per month, respectively. That suggests the initial tranches don't represent new supply. "These are the volumes that would have gone to the global market anyway without any additional effort," said Tatiana Mitrova, a global fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.
Even if extra barrels were added, the impact on U.S. retail prices would be minimal. Isabelle Gilks, principal analyst for retail fuels at Wood Mackenzie, said the announced volumes are "a small fraction, less than 5%, of US diesel demand over the next few months," so they should have "very limited impact" on pump prices. The bigger issue, she noted, is supply constraints: Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out Russian refining capacity, and Middle East export routes remain disrupted. "Unless the attacks stop and those routes reopen, there is little extra diesel to bring to market, just as winter demand picks up," Gilks added.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, echoed that view, calling the figures "quite small" relative to the global market of about 28 million barrels per day. The deal comes as the Trump administration scrambles to address soaring fuel costs that are becoming a political liability ahead of the midterms. Gasoline averaged $4.33 per gallon on Wednesday, and diesel hit $6.30, according to AAA—up sharply from $3.08 and $3.66 a year ago. Energy prices rose 5.2% from August to September and are up 20.4% year-over-year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fueling concerns about the GOP's economic message.
Trump clarified Tuesday that the diesel is "being released into the world," not directly to the U.S., but the global market is interconnected. "It's a global market, so a problem somewhere is a problem everywhere," said Max Pyziur of the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC). "And it gets reflected pretty much at the pump wherever you might be located."
Analysts are also skeptical that Russia can actually deliver on the larger promised volumes. Matthew Sawoski, EPRINC's director of quantitative research, said Russia lacks the refining capacity due to Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. "The amount of refined products that the Russians are producing is way down," he said. "The deal that they have signed promises an additional capacity that's about equal to what they are exporting right now." Mitrova added that if Ukraine keeps up its attacks, even 1 million tons per month becomes problematic.
The deal also hands Russian President Vladimir Putin a political win, analysts say. "The way the deal is framed allows Putin to present himself as a trustable ally and very important figure for the United States," Mitrova said, pointing to Trump's suggestion that Ukraine should replace President Volodymyr Zelensky and the administration's threats to cut off intelligence sharing. Sawoski noted the exports could net Russia roughly $6.9 billion, with the Kremlin collecting about 7% in taxes—enough to fund a full day of war or produce thousands of Shahed drones. "We're extremely skeptical that they can do that," he said.
As the administration pushes for an energy ceasefire in Ukraine, the practical impact of this deal remains unclear. With midterm elections looming and approval ratings sliding, the White House is under pressure to show progress on prices, but the numbers suggest this agreement may be more about optics than actual relief.
