President Trump's closing argument to voters was to treat the midterms as a referendum on him. They did—and the result was a political earthquake that cost Republicans control of both the House and Senate. The defeat, as sweeping as it was, was not a surprise to many who watched the president's unfocused and often bizarre campaign trail behavior.
Two years ago, Trump promised that inflation would ease and food prices would drop if he returned to the White House. Instead, prices have climbed higher than when Joe Biden left office, and any trip to the supermarket confirms the failure. His prediction that the war with Iran would be over in weeks proved equally wrong. A recent NBC News poll shows 71% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track—a figure that might have prompted a more disciplined president to focus on kitchen-table issues. But Trump spent his final days before the election talking about the rear ends of a Republican senator and singer Nicki Minaj, delivering a 20-minute monologue at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool about gravel, grass, and algae, and calling Norway "sucks" for not awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize. He also insulted Bill Maher as a "complete and total loser."
Republican candidates in tight races were left hoping for a word on the cost of living, but instead got a stream of consciousness about algae and personal grievances. The party's silence in the face of Trump's behavior—including his first-day pardons of January 6 rioters and his dismissal of affordability as a "hoax"—was a strategic failure. As voters delivered a stinging rebuke, it became clear that the GOP's loyalty to Trump was really a form of cowardice, and the price is now being paid.
Trump did have a legitimate argument against the Democratic Party's leftward drift. He pointed to progressive proposals for a wealth tax, Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, and even defunding the police. Yet, despite those vulnerabilities, Democrats won because the election was as much about Trump's character as his policies. Voters rejected his vulgarity, narcissism, and vindictiveness—and those traits rubbed off on his allies. In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall's loss followed his accusation that his opponent was "probably grooming" children. In Texas, Republican insinuations about a Democratic candidate's sexuality backfired. And Trump's attack on Michigan's Abdul El-Sayed as a "vicious, violent jihadist" didn't prevent El-Sayed from winning. Democratic Senate candidates also triumphed in Maine, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
The Democratic victory, however, is not a blank check. As Democrats plan their next moves, they must resist the urge to overreach. Impeaching Trump a third time or launching endless investigations may satisfy the progressive base, but it doesn't represent the priorities of Middle America. The party's socialist wing could alienate moderate voters if it pushes too far. If Democrats fail to bring down prices and restore a sense of national direction, they could find themselves in the same position as Republicans in two years—on the outside looking in.
Trump's ability to damage his enemies is well known, but his talent for harming his friends is now part of political lore. The GOP's devastating loss is a direct consequence of his erratic leadership. As one analysis noted, Trump's triple crisis—on the war, inflation, and credibility—proved too much for the party to overcome. The question now is whether Democrats can learn from the GOP's mistakes and govern effectively, or whether they will repeat them.
