Democrats in Texas are eyeing a potential breakthrough in the state's Senate race after President Trump threw his support behind Attorney General Ken Paxton, a candidate widely seen as more beatable than the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn. The move has injected fresh energy into a party that has long struggled to flip Texas, with strategists pointing to Paxton's scandals as a possible opening.
Jon Mark Hogg, co-founder of the 134 PAC, which backs rural Democratic parties, said the endorsement could backfire by alienating moderate Republicans. “Making an endorsement here after early voting has already started is going to make half of the Republicans in Texas angry,” Hogg told The World Signal. “If they’re already disposed to not want to support Ken Paxton … I think you’re going to see that at the election in November. I’m not saying that they’ll vote for Mr. Talarico, but they may stay home.” That, he added, is “as good as a vote for James Talarico.”
Trump’s endorsement landed after early voting began, meaning some Republicans had already cast ballots. Cornyn has vowed to stay in the race and retains backing from top Senate GOP leadership, but the primary has exposed deep fractures within the Texas GOP. The party establishment backs Cornyn, while MAGA grassroots have rallied around Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges before being acquitted by the state Senate.
Democrats hope the intraparty war will depress GOP turnout or push some Republicans to cross over. Joel Montfort, a Texas-based Democratic strategist, called the messy contest “a great advantage going into November.” He noted that Cornyn’s attacks on Paxton provide ready-made ammunition for the general election. “With Cornyn rolling out every bad thing Paxton has ever done, that’s going to be fresh in everybody’s memory, and Democrats, of course, will be able to use all that ammo to go up against Paxton, so it’s kind of a win-win,” Montfort said.
Polls show a tight race. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey last month found Talarico leading Cornyn by 7 points and Paxton by 8. Another April poll from Texas Southern University showed Cornyn ahead of Talarico 45% to 44%, while Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45% each. The race has already shattered spending records, becoming the most expensive primary and primary runoff in state history, per AdImpact. Cornyn has benefited from roughly $20 million in outside support, compared to $5 million for Paxton.
Talarico, meanwhile, has a significant cash advantage. His campaign reported raising $27 million, and outside groups are expected to pour more money in after the runoff. Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, jabbed at Paxton: “Talarico raised $27 million, leads in the polls, and has never once had his own staff call the FBI on him. We’ll take those odds.” She also cited an April Texas Public Opinion Research poll showing that a quarter of Cornyn’s supporters would likely vote for Talarico if Paxton is the nominee.
Texas Democratic Chair Kendall Scudder downplayed any shift in strategy, saying the party has long assumed Paxton would be the nominee. “We’re not afraid to run against Cornyn, we’re not afraid to run against Paxton,” Scudder said. “Let the clown show determine who that’s going to be.” Talarico echoed that sentiment, arguing that “it doesn’t matter who wins this runoff” and that his movement “rises above party politics.”
Still, past disappointments loom large. Texas Democrats have been burned before, most notably with Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 and his failed gubernatorial bid against Greg Abbott in 2022. The party is also grappling with internal strife, as Scudder faces a challenge for his chairmanship from Monique Alcala. That distraction, some worry, could undermine the focus needed to capitalize on the GOP’s turmoil. Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic operative, urged caution: “Trump’s endorsement gives Democrats an opening. We’ve got to be smart enough to take advantage of it.”
