Texas state Representative Steve Toth (R) is projected to win the open 2nd Congressional District seat, according to Decision Desk HQ, defeating Democrat Shaun Finnie in a race that tested the strength of the GOP's conservative base in the Houston suburbs.
With nearly all votes counted, Toth captured roughly 51 percent of the vote to Finnie's 49 percent in the district that spans parts of Harris and Montgomery counties. The margin was tighter than many Republicans expected, reflecting the competitive nature of the region even as the district remains safely Republican on paper.
Toth's victory comes after a bitter primary battle in March in which he ousted incumbent Representative Dan Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL who had drawn the ire of some conservatives for his voting record and his refusal to echo former President Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in 2020. Toth won that primary with 55.8 percent of the vote to Crenshaw's 40.7 percent.
Trump had endorsed Toth, making Crenshaw the only House Republican on the Texas ballot without the former president's backing. Toth also received endorsements from Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Turning Point Action, a conservative youth organization.
"This campaign has been a referendum on representatives who campaign one way and govern another, and the people have spoken," Toth said in a statement following his primary win, a theme he carried into the general election.
Toth's campaign emphasized his conservative credentials, including border security enforcement, opposition to critical race theory in schools, and support for Second Amendment rights. His website touted these positions as evidence of his commitment to the MAGA agenda.
Before his congressional bid, Toth represented Texas House District 15, where he was elected in 2012 and again in 2018. He was known as one of the most conservative members of the state legislature, and he has said he plans to join the House Freedom Caucus when he is sworn into Congress.
In addition to his political career, Toth is an ordained pastor and owns a pool business, a background he often highlighted on the campaign trail as evidence of his connection to working-class voters.
The 2nd District race was one of several closely watched contests in Texas this cycle, as Democrats sought to make gains in suburban areas but ultimately failed to flip the seat. For more on the broader Texas political landscape, see Cruz's blunt assessment of the GOP's performance and the Nehls brothers' continued hold on their district.
Toth's win solidifies the Republican hold on the seat, but the narrow margin suggests that the district could become more competitive in future cycles, especially if Democrats continue to invest in the Houston suburbs.
