The 2028 Republican presidential primary is already taking shape in the aftermath of the GOP's bruising midterm defeats, with Vice President JD Vance under fire for attributing the losses to the Iran war while other prominent Republicans, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), are positioning themselves as alternatives.
The scale of the losses has created a significant opening for potential White House hopefuls to challenge Vance, who had been widely seen as the front-runner to succeed former President Trump. Kevin Madden, a veteran Republican strategist who advised Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign, said the results were "bad news for every leader across the party, given the scale of the losses," but particularly damaging for Vance's 2028 prospects. "Vance is now in the position of serving as a loyal vice president to a lame-duck president whose approval rating is in the 30s and whose influence on the future of the party could be in question," Madden added.
Some GOP insiders are questioning whether a candidate not directly tied to the administration might be a stronger standard-bearer. One top GOP operative who has spoken to DeSantis said, "Tuesday made clear that the stink on Vice President Vance and Secretary [Marco] Rubio may be too much to overcome as the election was a referendum on the job they are doing." The operative added, "This certainly creates a lane for DeSantis, Cruz and others if they are willing to run in a potentially impossible year to win."
Vance's attempt to distance himself from Trump by blaming the Iran war for the losses has only highlighted his dilemma. Trump has doubled down on his decision to start the war, leaving Vance in a politically precarious spot. Madden predicted that "Vance's profile as a candidate is directly tied to the Trump legacy," and without a more independent identity, he will face challenges in the next two-year cycle.
DeSantis, who ran against Trump in 2024, has been quick to offer his own post-mortem, pointing to the war in Iran and high gas prices as key factors. In an interview with SiriusXM host Stephen A. Smith, he accused some in his party of "gaslighting" voters by not acknowledging their economic anxiety. He also touted Florida's red wall, where Republicans won Senate and gubernatorial races, as evidence of his leadership. However, the GOP did lose three House races in redrawn districts and is behind in a fourth, and the statewide races were closer than expected.
Cruz, who has been more open about his presidential ambitions, compared the losses to the GOP's post-Watergate drubbing, hinting at corruption as a factor. He also criticized Trump's tariffs and the Iran war for raising costs, saying, "Food is too high. Gas is too high. Diesel is too high. Insurance is too high. Life is too high."
GOP strategists predict a wide-open primary. One former Trump campaign aide said, "Vance is completely unacceptable to any Republican who can accurately assess the reasons for the pasting we received on Tuesday. It not only opens the door for others, it should soundly shut the door for JD Vance." Another former aide noted that "Cruz and DeSantis were the winners in our party the other night," calling it "the beginning of the end of the Trump era."
Some Republicans argue Vance must move quickly to secure Trump's endorsement. Veteran strategist Susan Del Percio said, "Vance needs to announce first with the president's endorsement. If he doesn't do it in January, it'll look like a sign of weakness and everyone will know the president isn't on board."
Even with Trump's backing, Vance would face the challenge of being tied to the president's daily whims. "Imagine, he's going to have to answer to Trump's whim or rant of the day every day," the former aide said. "And he's not going to stand in stark contrast to the president because Trump will shred him. That's just not an enviable place."
As the GOP recalibrates, DeSantis and Cruz are emerging as early winners, with analysts pointing to their ability to articulate a post-Trump vision. The midterm rout has clearly reshaped the 2028 landscape, and the coming months will be critical for all potential contenders.
