Republican ambitions to push through a significant portion of President Trump's agenda during the lame-duck session are rapidly unraveling in the aftermath of Tuesday's decisive electoral losses, according to GOP aides on Capitol Hill.
Senate Republican sources said the pre-election bravado about using budget reconciliation to bypass a Democratic filibuster and fund the Pentagon and the Iran war now seems unrealistic, given that Republican candidates lost even in reliably red states like Texas, South Carolina, and Kansas. Vice President Vance has attributed the widespread GOP losses to the unpopularity of the Iran conflict, and Senate Republican sources acknowledged that the war was a major drag on the party.
There is a growing bipartisan expectation that annual funding bills, including defense appropriations, will be delayed into 2027. Concerns are also mounting that the 65-year streak of passing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) could be broken.
Senate Republican sources are questioning whether permitting reform legislation, slated for floor action next week, or the farm bill—a priority for Senate Majority Leader John Thune—can pass before Christmas, given that Democrats are poised to expand their majorities in both chambers in January.
One senior GOP aide said the "logistics" of passing a budget resolution and a follow-up reconciliation package to fund the Pentagon and Trump's emergency supplemental defense request "is going to be difficult." The aide added, "I don't know if there's an appetite there," and warned that the annual defense authorization bill also faces an uphill battle.
Even if Thune and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Ron Johnson can rally 50 Republican votes for a reconciliation plan, it would consume weeks of floor time and face uncertain prospects in the House. "I think the House is going to have some attendance problems, getting members back," said a second senior GOP aide. The source expressed doubt that Speaker Mike Johnson could persuade all Republicans to return for a six-week sprint after the election drubbing.
With a narrow 218-seat majority, just a few absences could derail a reconciliation package that would receive no Democratic votes. Republicans also fear that permitting reform, which had momentum in late September, may now collapse after Democrats picked up at least seven Senate seats and 39 House seats. One Republican aide said, "I'll be surprised" if permitting reform passes, pointing to Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer's lukewarm comments on Wednesday.
Schumer said he "hoped" the bipartisan working group would reach a deal, a stark contrast to the optimism voiced by Senators Martin Heinrich and Sheldon Whitehouse just weeks ago. A second GOP aide said Schumer's remarks appeared to walk back Democratic enthusiasm. "Whitehouse and Heinrich said there was a deal," the aide noted, referring to the ranking members on key committees.
The collapse of permitting reform could delay any eventual agreement for months or longer in the next Congress. Meanwhile, aides are increasingly pessimistic about a year-end omnibus appropriations package before the Dec. 11 funding deadline. Democrats note that Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, who lost her reelection bid, hasn't released any draft Republican appropriations bills, and Trump's insistence on $1.5 trillion for defense while barely increasing non-defense spending has derailed the process.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically, with Democrats emboldened and Republicans facing internal recriminations. As one GOP aide put it, the party's legislative agenda now confronts a reality check. For more on the fallout, see how the midterm rout exposed Trump's unreality problem and the GOP's midterm collapse and Trump's blind spots.
