A fresh survey from The New York Times and Siena College reveals that the Texas Senate contest is effectively tied, with Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton each capturing 47 percent support among likely voters statewide. The poll, released Monday, underscores a deeply competitive race that could have implications for the narrowly divided Senate.
The survey, conducted June 19-27 among 656 likely Texas voters, carries a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. It shows both candidates consolidating their party bases: 94 percent of Democrats back Talarico, while 91 percent of Republicans support Paxton. Among independents, however, Talarico holds a decisive advantage, leading 58 percent to 31 percent. Another 13 percent of independents prefer a different candidate.
The partisan split mirrors the 2024 presidential vote. Roughly 95 percent of Texans who voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris say they will vote for Talarico, while 87 percent of President Donald Trump supporters back Paxton. Among those who did not cast a ballot in the last presidential election, Talarico leads 48 percent to 29 percent.
Demographic breakdowns show Talarico with significant leads among Black and Hispanic voters. He garners 80 percent support from Black voters versus Paxton's 13 percent, and leads 61 percent to 29 percent among Hispanic voters. Among educated white voters, Talarico holds a slim 49 percent to 48 percent edge. Paxton dominates among non-educated white voters, 68 percent to 27 percent. However, among non-white educated voters, Talarico leads 63 percent to 28 percent.
These findings align with an earlier Texas Pulse survey that also found the race at a statistical tie, with 46 percent of likely voters saying they would back either candidate if the election were held today. Talarico won the Democratic primary in March, setting up a November general election showdown with Paxton to replace retiring GOP Senator John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the primary.
The campaign has already turned personal. Paxton has hurled nicknames at Talarico, including "Low-T Talarico," a jab at his masculinity. Trump, who endorsed Paxton, revived a comparison he previously used against former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, calling Talarico "Alfred E. Neuman." Talarico told MS NOW's Eugene Daniels earlier this month that he "had to look up what" his rival meant, and dismissed the attacks as tired political theater. "I honestly get the sense that people across the spectrum, across the state are tired of this 'politics as professional wrestling,' right? You got these old guys lathered up in their fake tan, throwing corny nicknames at each other," Talarico said.
The race is unfolding against a backdrop of broader legal and political battles. The Supreme Court recently let stand a Texas ban on paid voter assistance, a decision that could affect turnout in the state. Meanwhile, another high court ruling upheld states' rights to count mail ballots post-Election Day, a matter that could shape how Texas handles its mail-in votes in this close contest.
With the race in a dead heat and both candidates trading barbs, the Texas Senate seat remains one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the country.
