A new Fox News survey shows Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) holding a slim 2-point advantage over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the race for the U.S. Senate. Among likely voters, 51 percent back Talarico while 49 percent support Paxton, a gap that falls within the poll's 3-point margin of error and underscores the competitiveness of the contest in the Lone Star State.
The outcome could prove pivotal for control of the upper chamber. Democrats are aiming to flip a statewide seat in Texas for the first time in decades, and the poll reflects a closely divided electorate: 49 percent of likely voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Senate, while 50 percent favor Republican leadership.
Pollster Daron Shaw highlighted the unusual dynamics, noting that “Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against [President] Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate.”
Talarico draws strong backing from key Democratic constituencies: 79 percent of Black voters, 65 percent of moderates, and 64 percent of Hispanic voters. Paxton’s support is anchored by white evangelicals (74 percent), white men without college degrees (65 percent), rural voters (57 percent), and those over 65 (55 percent).
Favorability ratings reveal a stark contrast. Talarico holds a net positive rating of 8 points, while Paxton sits 18 points underwater. Republicans are more than six times as likely to view Paxton unfavorably as Democrats are to view Talarico negatively.
Among the broader pool of registered voters, Talarico’s lead expands to 7 points—outside the margin of error. The poll also found that supporters of former President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement are highly enthusiastic, though Democratic Socialists of America members show nearly equal interest in the midterms.
Economic concerns dominate voter priorities. Seventy percent of likely voters say the cost of living is important to their Senate vote, and Talarico leads Paxton by 32 points among those who feel they are falling behind financially. Paxton, meanwhile, holds a 48-point advantage among those getting ahead and a 3-point edge among those holding steady.
Despite Talarico’s lead, 53 percent of likely voters consider him too liberal, while 51 percent say Paxton is too close to Trump. Nearly half of respondents say Trump will be extremely important to their vote, a factor that could shape turnout.
The poll also tested the Texas governor’s race, where incumbent Greg Abbott (R) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52-47 percent, with Abbott enjoying a 52 percent approval rating. Notably, 10 percent of Talarico supporters say they will back Abbott for reelection—a potential complicating factor for Democratic hopes.
Shaw observed that “Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans.” The survey, conducted Sept. 24-28, included 1,203 registered voters via phone and text-based online interviews, with margins of error of 3 points for likely voters and 2.5 points for registered voters.
