Republicans who bet on aggressive redistricting to cement a House majority may be in for a letdown, according to Decision Desk HQ’s latest election model. The nonpartisan handicapper released a forecast Tuesday showing Democrats with a 68 percent probability of retaining control of the chamber, versus 32 percent for the GOP.
DDHQ’s chief elections analyst, Geoffrey Skelley, explained that the forecast’s 1 million simulations produce an average Democratic seat majority of 229-206 — a net gain of 14 seats. But the more striking detail is that Democrats are projected to pick up an average of 13 seats in the 41 states that did not redraw their congressional maps, while gaining only two seats across the nine states that did.
“In our forecast for the unchanged states, Democrats win an average of nearly 150 seats, up from the 137 they currently control,” Skelley wrote on Substack. “Meanwhile, the redistricted states do not come close to offsetting that shift.”
Texas, the first state to adopt a new map after President Trump urged red states to act, illustrates the shortfall. Skelley noted that Republicans are averaging “a bit under a two-seat gain” in the Lone Star State, roughly three seats short of their target. Redistricting in Texas has actually helped some Democratic incumbents, particularly in districts with Latino majorities, where Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are both expected to hold their seats.
Democrats also have about a one-in-three chance of unseating two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas’ 15th District. Skelley pointed out that under the new lines, Trump would have carried that seat by about 18 points in 2020, but only by about two points — a sign that the map’s intended GOP advantage is not translating into a safe seat.
Florida, another state where Republicans drew maps aimed at flipping four Democratic-held seats, is also showing signs of underperformance. Skelley said that at least two of those targeted seats are likely to stay Democratic, with no net shift toward the GOP. Ohio is similarly poised to disappoint Republicans: three Democratic incumbents are favored to keep their seats, and Rep. Max Miller’s district has moved to a toss-up amid allegations of domestic abuse involving his wife.
California, where Democrats responded with their own redistricting push, could yield four or five new Democratic seats. However, Skelley noted that Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is “the smaller underdog” in the 22nd District, which Trump would have narrowly won in 2024. He added that a Republican win there, along with outside shots in the 13th, 45th, and GOP-held 48th districts, could keep Democrats from a full five-seat gain in the state.
Missouri remains a wildcard. The state’s Supreme Court recently ruled that the Republican-drawn map “did not go into effect and will not go into effect” unless voters approve it in a referendum. The court ordered the state to use the old map, which favors Republicans 6-2, rather than the 7-1 map used in this year’s primaries. DDHQ has frozen its Missouri forecast until the legal battle is resolved, Skelley said. The confusion has angered voters, including Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), who told The Hill that the situation has left constituents frustrated. Trump called the ruling a “Dark Day for ‘Justice’ in Missouri,” claiming the election process had been “disturbed.”
The Missouri standoff is part of a broader pattern of redistricting battles that could shape control of the House. As Missouri’s redistricting turmoil continues, the impact on House races remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the state’s secretary of state faces a contempt hearing over the redistricting standoff, adding another layer of legal and political friction.
With the midterms approaching, the DDHQ forecast suggests that the GOP’s redistricting offensive may not deliver the decisive advantage many expected. Instead, the battle for the House may hinge on broader political dynamics, including tariff disputes that could threaten GOP Senate seats and other national issues.
