A new Quinnipiac University poll reveals that a majority of Americans foresee a prolonged military engagement with Iran, with 55% of respondents predicting the conflict will stretch beyond one year. Released Wednesday, the survey underscores growing public skepticism about the trajectory of U.S. operations in the region.
Specifically, 20% of those surveyed believe the war will last exactly one year, while 35% think it will exceed that mark. Another 34% expect the strikes to continue for months, with only 4% anticipating a duration of weeks and a mere 1% foreseeing a matter of days.
The poll also highlights deepening opposition to the conflict: 60% of respondents oppose the war, compared to 34% who support it. This marks a sharp shift from Quinnipiac's April survey, when just 32% predicted the war would last a year or longer.
“The pushback is evident,” said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac. “Six in 10 voters want no part of military action against Iran. More than seven in 10 say putting troops on Iranian soil is a no-go. And if the war drags on, more than half of voters predict it will last a year or more.”
Partisan divisions remain stark. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans back the military action, while 89% of Democrats and 69% of independents oppose it. Only 5% of Democrats and 26% of independents support the conflict.
Confidence in the administration's diplomatic efforts has also eroded. About 40% of respondents expressed at least some faith in special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump's son-in-law, to negotiate an end to the war. However, 57% said they have little or no confidence in the duo. “After months of rising and falling hopes, punctuated by deadly military exchanges, voters wonder whether Kushner and Witkoff have the diplomatic chops to close the deal,” Malloy added.
The survey, conducted July 23–27 among 963 respondents (margin of error ±4.1 percentage points), also measured Trump's overall job performance. Only 32% approved of his handling of his second term, while 58% disapproved. These figures align with a recent Associated Press/NORC poll, which found that 46% of Americans expect the Iran conflict to last another year or more and that two-thirds of Americans consider the war not worth fighting. That poll also reported a 28% approval rating for Trump's Iran policy and a 32% overall approval rating.
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted during a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes, which resumed late Wednesday after Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a surprise attack on a U.S. base in Jordan. The data reflect a public increasingly wary of extended military commitments, with many Americans questioning the administration's strategy. As one analyst noted, the findings suggest a growing perception that political leadership is a top safety threat, a sentiment that could shape the upcoming election cycle.
