The sudden suspension of Representative Eric Swalwell's gubernatorial campaign has dramatically altered the political landscape in California, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Group survey. The poll, conducted among likely voters, shows the race to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom has been thrown into flux, with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided.
New Frontrunner Emerges
The survey, taken in the immediate aftermath of Swalwell's departure, places Republican Steve Hilton at the front of the pack with 17 percent support. Hilton, a former Fox News host, recently secured an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, a factor likely influencing his standing. He is followed closely by Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer, who are tied at 12 percent each.
Democratic Representative Katie Porter and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra are statistically tied at 10 percent support. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who has now qualified for a key upcoming debate in Swalwell's absence, registered 5 percent in the poll.
Swalwell's Swift Fall
Swalwell's campaign unraveled rapidly over a single weekend as allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced, leading to a cascade of withdrawn endorsements and staff resignations. The congressman, who had been leading the same Emerson poll in March with 17 percent, suspended his bid and subsequently announced his resignation from Congress. He has vehemently denied the allegations, stating he will "fight the serious, false allegations made against me." The Los Angeles District Attorney has since confirmed a criminal investigation is underway.
Despite his exit, Swalwell's name will remain on the June primary ballot due to California's election laws. The state's nonpartisan primary system will send the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
A Fluid and Uncertain Field
The most striking finding from the poll is the high level of uncertainty among voters. Nearly a quarter (23 percent) of those surveyed said they were undecided, indicating the race remains highly volatile. This indecision follows the abrupt removal of a leading candidate and suggests voters are reassessing the field. The upcoming Nexstar Media Group debate, featuring the six candidates now at the top of the poll, will be a critical test for contenders seeking to capture this unsettled bloc.
The political shockwaves from Swalwell's exit extend beyond the governor's race, triggering a broader reckoning within the Democratic Party's leadership as they manage the fallout. The allegations have also prompted calls from some Republicans, like Representative Lauren Boebert, for consequences against departing members.
Poll Methodology and Context
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted on April 14-15, interviewing 1,000 likely voters in California. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The results mark a significant shift from the previous survey in March, where Swalwell held a clear lead. The current data reflects the immediate impact of a major candidate's departure under a cloud of scandal, a scenario that continues to reshape races across the country, much like the cross-party dynamics seen in other gubernatorial contests.
As the primary approaches, the candidates are now navigating a fundamentally changed race. Hilton will aim to consolidate Republican support and leverage his Trump endorsement, while Steyer, Porter, and Becerra will vie for the Democratic voters left without their former frontrunner. The large undecided vote presents both an opportunity and a challenge for all remaining contenders in one of the nation's most consequential state-level elections.
