Republican strategist Brad Todd argued Sunday that former President Donald Trump's decision to endorse Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn amounted to a massive political miscalculation, one he valued at roughly $100 million.
"I think the president made a 100-million-dollar mistake in picking Ken Paxton and urging Republican primary voters to vote for him. John Cornyn is a much more credible person," Todd said on CNN's State of the Union. He contrasted the two candidates sharply, adding, "He is a much more moral person, and he also was going to be a shoo-in. I think Ken Paxton is a real lift, and I think it was a mistake."
Todd's critique aligns with a broader unease among some GOP operatives who question whether Paxton, who has faced multiple legal and ethical controversies, can hold the seat in a general election. The National Republican Senatorial Committee had previously backed Cornyn and even spotlighted Paxton's personal scandals, including his divorce on "biblical grounds" and allegations that he and his ex-wife improperly claimed three different properties as primary residences. Those posts were scrubbed after Paxton secured the nomination in the GOP runoff.
Even Trump allies like former White House strategist Steve Bannon have acknowledged the uphill climb. Bannon said it would be "very tough" for Paxton to win but suggested a victory by "five-plus" points was possible. Despite that caution, Trump has already declared victory in the race against Democratic state Representative James Talarico, months before the November election.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he and Cornyn would "watch Ken become a fantastic, common sense Senator, one who is respected by all." He dismissed Talarico as "Alfred E. Neuman," referencing the Mad magazine character, calling him "the worst TEXAS candidate I have ever seen."
The endorsement battle in Texas is part of a broader pattern of Trump wading into contested GOP primaries, often backing candidates who share his combative style but sometimes struggle with general election voters. This dynamic has fueled internal GOP debates about electability versus ideological purity, especially in a state like Texas that, while reliably red, has shown signs of tightening margins in recent cycles.
Trump's decision to abandon an incumbent like Cornyn, who had a strong fundraising operation and a relatively low national profile of controversy, has left some party strategists questioning the long-term cost. The "$100 million" figure Todd cited appears to reflect the additional resources the party and outside groups will need to invest to prop up Paxton in what might have been a safe seat.
Cornyn, for his part, has largely stayed above the fray, but the NRSC's initial willingness to attack Paxton suggests deep concern among party insiders about the nominee's baggage. As the general election campaign heats up, all eyes will be on whether Trump's gamble pays off or becomes a cautionary tale for future endorsements.
