A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that a solid majority of Americans, across party lines, are against wagering on election results through platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket. With the midterm elections approaching, 60% of respondents said they do not support such betting, while only 13% voiced support. Another 24% were unsure, and 3% declined to answer.
The survey, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 among 4,506 respondents, underscores a bipartisan unease with the growing role of prediction markets in politics. Among Republicans, 61% opposed election betting, 16% supported it, and 23% were unsure. Democratic opposition was even stronger, with nearly 70% against, 12% in favor, and 18% uncertain. Only 1% in each party skipped the question.
However, attitudes shift when it comes to other types of wagering. Roughly 43% of respondents opposed betting on professional sports, while 29% approved and 25% were unsure. Partisan splits on sports betting were narrower: 44% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats opposed it, while 33% of GOP and 29% of Democratic respondents supported it.
The findings come as prediction markets have surged in popularity, particularly during the 2024 presidential race. Polymarket reported $3.7 billion in wagers on its “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, with $1.3 billion bet on President Trump’s victory and $1.03 billion on former Vice President Kamala Harris.
A Polymarket spokesperson defended the platforms, telling The Hill: “Most Americans are deeply disenchanted with our information ecosystem, because it’s often impossible to find the truth and avoid being scammed. Prediction markets are a way to get unbiased, accurate information about the events that impact our lives. Recognition of the public value of prediction markets is growing, but they’re still brand new to most, and it’s going to take some time for the public to learn more and see the real value.”
The legal landscape shifted in 2024 when a federal court ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) could not block election betting, clearing the way for these markets to operate more freely. That ruling has fueled concerns among lawmakers about potential corruption and market manipulation.
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, described the current state of election betting ahead of the 2026 midterms as “the wild west right now.” He added: “We’re in real new territory, and it’ll be interesting to see how state and federal governments and others respond to it.”
Those worries are not hypothetical. Kalshi is reportedly investigating at least three trades placed on its platform just before news outlets announced Trump’s selection of his next press secretary, according to The Wall Street Journal. Kalshi did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment.
The poll’s margin of error is 2.3 percentage points. As the midterms approach, the debate over prediction markets is likely to intensify, with lawmakers weighing concerns about integrity against the markets’ claims of providing valuable information. For more on how election integrity efforts are shaping up, see this look at legal preparations. And for a broader view of public sentiment toward elected officials, check this Gallup finding on courage.
